Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Héroes de San Ramón (Cajamarca)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cajamarca		Deportivo Garcilaso

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.9	2.63	Watch
	3	3.1	2.15
	2.82	3.25	2.48	Watch
	2.65	3.4	2.59
	2.69	3.31	2.55	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.2
	2.89	2.91	2.64	Watch
	2.82	3.25	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.72)	3.17 ↓ (3.2)	2.47 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cajamarca
32.7%

Draw
29.4%

Deportivo Garcilaso
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

29.4%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

30.2%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cajamarca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Deportivo Garcilaso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

Cajamarca - Deportivo Garcilaso Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Deportivo Garcilaso will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Deportivo Garcilaso (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Cajamarca (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cajamarca (votes: 1 - 50%). Deportivo Garcilaso (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Campos D. (G) 5. Aguirre J. 27. Serra P. 3. Rugel L. 25. Rosell Delgado J. A. 14. Alvarez L. 19. Palacios B. 13. Oncoy F. 20. Vasquez A. 10. Ramirez E. 11. Quintero J.	1. Zubczuk P. (G) 55. Canales E. 14. Gariglio I. 13. Lojas J. 18. Nunez O. 26. Celi Y. 5. Garcia C. 16. Beltran C. 10. Sandoval K. 7. Bazan J. 9. Ugarriza A.
Substitutes
22. Balanta G. 28. De la Cruz L. 7. Ibarguen Y. 30. Infante M. 6. Lujan J. 8. Mejia C. 1. Sanchez F. (G) 9. Verdun J. 16. Villamarin R.	31. Barbieri J. (G) 6. Garrafa Tapia I. A. 23. Moreno X. 25. Paucar E. 22. Rodriguez A. 2. Salazar A. 28. Valer J. F. 33. Villacorta S.
Coaches
Bossi P.	Duro G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Vasquez A. ⚽,
29', Garcia C. 🟨,
31', Garcia C. ↓, Paucar E. ↑,
44', 1 - 1, Aguirre J. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gariglio I. ↓, Moreno X. ↑,
64', Palacios B. ↓, Balanta G. ↑,
67', Celi Y. 🟨,
75', Bazan J. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
84', Celi Y. ↓, Salazar A. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Quintero J. (Pen),
90', Vasquez A. ↓, De la Cruz L. ↑,
90', Ramirez E. ↓, Lujan J. ↑,
90+4', Campos D. 🟨,
90+7', Serra P. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 2).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Deportivo Garcilaso may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Deportivo Garcilaso might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Cajamarca: Aparicio K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Deportivo Garcilaso: Gomez N. (Red Card) Naya E. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Cajamarca: Mejia C. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cajamarca won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Cajamarca won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UTC De Cajamarca
Peruvian Liga 1
27.04.25	Universitario de Deportes - Cajamarca	6:0 ✺
20.04.25	Cajamarca - ADT Tarma	0:1 ✺
11.04.25	Ayacucho - Cajamarca	0:1 ✺
06.04.25	Cajamarca - Sporting Cristal	4:1 ✺
30.03.25	Juan Pablo II College - Cajamarca	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LLWWL
- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
26.04.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Escuela Municipal Binacional	0:1 ✺
18.04.25	FBC Melgar - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:2 ✺
14.04.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
04.04.25	Sport Huancayo - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:3 ✺
29.03.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Sport Boys	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
12.07.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cajamarca	1:0
26.01.24	Cajamarca - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0
03.09.23	Cajamarca - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0
16.04.23	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cajamarca	2:2

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