The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Unión Magdalena 46.9%
Draw 30.3%
Patriotas 22.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
52.3%
29.2%
18.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
55.8%
27.4%
17.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Unión Magdalena's form might have worsened.
Patriotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+8.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Unión Magdalena, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patriotas than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Patriotas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
83.3%
0%
16.7%
Unión Magdalena - Patriotas Predictions
Users Predictions:
Unión Magdalena will win
(5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%). Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Mojica D. (G) 17. Arrieta G. 7. Carreno A. 23. Congo J. 9. Iguaran C. 27. Lerma J. 3. Mera D. 10. Mercado J. (C) 18. Molina F. 6. Ortiz D. 20. Vasquez J.
12. Espitia J. (G) 10. Alvarez K. 17. Angulo H. 2. Carabali 19. Figueroa F. 30. Gomez M. 16. Molina T. 14. Montes J. 3. Palomeque D. 22. Porras A. 5. Salazar Sandoval K. A. (C)
Substitutes
34. Acevedo H. (G) 2. Ballesteros M. 19. Diaz K. 30. Di Lucca G. 22. Giraldo J. 15. Narvaez L. 14. Pinto J. 25. Sagrera W. 16. Surmay O.
1. Amaya Garcia J. A. (G) 4. Hurtado J. 27. Mora A. 33. Pacheco T. 28. Salguero Zapata C. S. 29. Sanchez J. 6. Torres F.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Vasquez J. 🟨,
9', 0 - 1, Alvarez K. (Penalty Awarded),
10', Figueroa F. 🟨,
31', 1 - 1, Congo J. ⚽,
35', Carreno A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Montes J. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
62', Ortiz D. ↓, Sagrera W. ↑,
62', Lerma J. ↓, Surmay O. ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Carreno A. ⚽,
74', Espitia J. 🟨,
75', Salazar Sandoval K. A. ↓, Mora A. ↑,
75', Gomez M. ↓, Sanchez J. ↑,
75', Arrieta G. ↓, Ballesteros M. ↑,
75', Mercado J. ↓, Narvaez L. ↑,
79', Palomeque D. 🟨,
83', Molina T. ↓, Pacheco T. ↑,
89', Iguaran C. ↓, Pinto J. ↑,
Preview
One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 10).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 1.
Unión Magdalena has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Patriotas's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
In this match, Unión Magdalena is a strong favorite.
We predict that Unión Magdalena will win today's game, with odds of 1.74.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.5:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Unión Magdalena won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 2.3:1).
Colombia
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