Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 3

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Welz T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
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World	Onefootball


	Union Berlin		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.5	2.55	Watch
	2.65	3.4	2.55
	2.72	3.45	2.52	Watch
	2.76	3.55	2.62
	2.75	3.31	2.51	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.8
	2.78	3.65	2.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.5)	3.45 (3.45)	2.6 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
35.6%

Draw
27.6%

Hoffenheim
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

27.8%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

29.7%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Union Berlin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hoffenheim, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	25%	56.2%

Union Berlin - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 1 - 25%). Hoffenheim (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Union Berlin (1.52) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 3 - 50%). Hoffenheim (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 15. Rothe T. 28. Trimmel C. (C) 8. Khedira R. 19. Haberer J. 24. Skov R. 7. Burke O. 23. Ilic A. 10. Ansah I.	1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 2. Hranac R. 21. Hajdari A. 13. Bernardo 18. Burger W. 7. Avdullahu L. 27. Kramaric A. 19. Lemperle T. 11. Asllani F. 29. Toure B.
Substitutes
11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 6. Kemlein A. 39. Kohn D. 33. Kral A. 27. Ljubicic M. 41. Ogbemudia O. 17. Preu D. 31. Raab M. (G) 21. Skarke T.	25. Akpoguma K. 35. Arthur Chaves 9. Bebou I. 10. Damar M. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G) 22. Prass A. 6. Promel G. 17. Tohumcu U.
Coaches
Baumgart S.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
45', Querfeld L. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Kramaric A. (Pen),
45+3', 0 - 2, Asllani F. ⚽, Lemperle T. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
49', 1 - 2, Ansah I. ⚽,
52', 1 - 3, Asllani F. ⚽,
57', Asllani F. 🟨,
66', Kramaric A. ↓, Promel G. ↑,
66', Asllani F. ↓, Moerstedt M. ↑,
68', Haberer J. ↓, Kral A. ↑,
71', 2 - 3, Rothe T. ⚽,
75', Khedira R. ↓, Kemlein A. ↑,
75', Ansah I. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
75', Burke O. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
78', Toure B. ↓, Prass A. ↑,
78', Hajdari A. ↓, Arthur Chaves ↑,
82', 2 - 4, Lemperle T. (Pen),
82', Rothe T. 🟥,
86', Skov R. ↓, Kohn D. ↑,
86', Lemperle T. ↓, Damar M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 3.

Union Berlin has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Hoffenheim is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Hoffenheim has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Union Berlin: Burcu L. (Ankle Injury) Nsoki S. (Muscle Injury) Schafer A. (Illness)

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Gendrey V. (Ankle Injury) Hlozek A. (Foot Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Union Berlin: Juranovic J. (Injury) Leite D. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:19. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Union Berlin won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
31.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Union Berlin - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
15.08.25	Gütersloh - Union Berlin	0:5 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Union Berlin - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Union Berlin - Espanyol	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWLL
- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
30.08.25	Hoffenheim - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	1:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Hansa Rostock - Hoffenheim	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.25	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	0:3 ✺
01.08.25	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
08.02.25	Hoffenheim - Union Berlin	0:4
21.09.24	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	2:1
17.02.24	Hoffenheim - Union Berlin	0:1
23.09.23	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	0:2
20.05.23	Hoffenheim - Union Berlin	4:2
21.01.23	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	3:1
15.01.22	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	2:1

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