Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 32

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Union Berlin		Köln

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.5	2.88	Watch
	2.37	3.4	2.95
	2.48	3.35	2.88	Watch
	2.53	3.5	2.93
	2.46	3.39	2.9	Watch
	2.45	3.2	2.75
	2.55	3.51	2.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.33)	3.41 ↓ (3.51)	2.89 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
38.8%

Draw
28.1%

Köln
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

27.1%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

28.2%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	47.1%	17.6%

Union Berlin - Köln Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Köln will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 47.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Klaus C. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 4. Leite D. 34. Nsoki S. 18. Juranovic J. 13. Schafer A. 8. Khedira R. (C) 6. Kemlein A. 15. Rothe T. 7. Burke O. 10. Ansah I.	1. Schwabe M. (C) 28. Sebulonsen S. 22. Simpson-Pusey J. 39. Ozkacar C. 32. Lund K. 5. Krauss T. 6. Martel E. 7. Waldschmidt L. 16. Kaminski J. 30. Bulter M. 13. El Mala S.
Substitutes
9. Burcu L. 19. Haberer J. 23. Ilic A. 39. Kohn D. 33. Kral A. 14. Querfeld L. 21. Skarke T. 28. Trimmel C. 48. Wisbereit T. (G)	17. Castro-Montes A. 27. Chavez F. 3. Heintz D. 8. Huseinbasic D. 37. Maina L. 38. Niang Y. 2. Schmied J. 29. Thielmann J. 20. Zieler R. (G)
Coaches
Eta M.	Wagner R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', Martel E. 🟨,
33', 0 - 1, Bulter M. ⚽, Waldschmidt L. (A),
34', Leite D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', Simpson-Pusey J. 🟨,
58', Schafer A. ↓, Burcu L. ↑,
58', Juranovic J. ↓, Trimmel C. ↑,
58', Ansah I. ↓, Ilic A. ↑,
61', 0 - 2, El Mala S. ⚽, Lund K. (A),
62', Waldschmidt L. ↓, Chavez F. ↑,
67', Nsoki S. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
71', Bulter M. ↓, Thielmann J. ↑,
72', Kaminski J. ↓, Maina L. ↑,
72', El Mala S. ↓, Niang Y. ↑,
73', 1 - 2, Rothe T. ⚽, Trimmel C. (A),
80', Lund K. ↓, Schmied J. ↑,
88', Khedira R. ↓, Kral A. ↑,
88', Schwabe M. 🟨,
89', 2 - 2, Burcu L. ⚽,
90+6', Burcu L. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 13 and 14)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 3.

Union Berlin is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Köln has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Union Berlin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:18. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Union Berlin won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:4. (average 1.5:0.5).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Union Berlin: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	FC Koln	4	1	1	2	6:9	-3	4
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4:17	-13	1

Last Results with these Odds

Köln - the odds 2.96 are the expected chance of winning is 32.12%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
24.04.26	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Union Berlin - Wolfsburg	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Heidenheim - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL
- 1. FC Köln
German Bundesliga
25.04.26	Köln - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	St. Pauli - Köln	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Köln - Werder Bremen	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Köln	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Köln - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Köln - Union Berlin	0:1
11.05.24	Köln - Union Berlin	3:2
20.12.23	Union Berlin - Köln	2:0
04.03.23	Union Berlin - Köln	0:0
11.09.22	Köln - Union Berlin	0:1
01.04.22	Union Berlin - Köln	1:0
07.11.21	Köln - Union Berlin	2:2

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