Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 17

Date: 15 January 2026, Thursday

Location: WWK Arena (Augsburg)

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

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	Augsburg		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.62	3.15	2.82	Watch
	2.66	3.28	2.86	Watch
	2.63	3	2.7	Watch
	2.75	3.26	2.91	Watch
	2.62	3.14	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.41)	3.17 ↓ (3.25)	2.82 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Augsburg
36%

Draw
30.1%

Union Berlin
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

29.3%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

30.2%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Augsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.7%	37.3%	47.1%

Augsburg - Union Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. Augsburg will win (votes: 7 - 14.3%). Union Berlin will win (votes: 24 - 49%). It will Tie (votes: 18 - 36.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 35% – 63%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Augsburg (votes: 3 - 14.3%). Union Berlin (votes: 9 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 9 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH 0 - Augsburg (1.85) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Augsburg (1.45) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Union Berlin (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Augsburg (votes: 8 - 28.6%). Union Berlin (votes: 11 - 39.3%). Tie (votes: 9 - 32.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dahmen F. (G) 40. Banks N. 31. Schlotterbeck K. (C) 16. Zesiger C. 19. Fellhauer R. 17. Jakic K. 8. Rexhbecaj E. 13. Giannoulis D. 30. Kade A. 20. Claude-Maurice A. 38. Gregoritsch M.	1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 4. Leite D. 28. Trimmel C. (C) 8. Khedira R. 13. Schafer A. 39. Kohn D. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 10. Ansah I. 7. Burke O.
Substitutes
9. Essende S. 11. Gharbi I. 14. Keitel Y. 36. Komur M. 22. Labrovic N. (G) 4. Massengo H. 3. Pedersen M. 32. Rieder F. 27. Wolf M.	9. Burcu L. 19. Haberer J. 23. Ilic A. 18. Juranovic J. 6. Kemlein A. 33. Kral A. 27. Ljubicic M. 34. Nsoki S. 31. Raab M. (G)
Coaches
Baum M.	Baumgart S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+6', 1 - 0, Claude-Maurice A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Jakic K. 🟨,
63', Rexhbecaj E. ↓, Massengo H. ↑,
64', Schafer A. ↓, Kemlein A. ↑,
64', Burke O. ↓, Ilic A. ↑,
64', Ansah I. ↓, Burcu L. ↑,
75', Giannoulis D. ↓, Wolf M. ↑,
75', Kade A. ↓, Komur M. ↑,
82', Khedira R. ↓, Kral A. ↑,
82', Leite D. ↓, Ljubicic M. ↑,
83', Gregoritsch M. ↓, Essende S. ↑,
83', Claude-Maurice A. ↓, Rieder F. ↑,
89', Kohn D. 🟥,
90+2', 1 - 1, Ljubicic M. ⚽, Ilic A. (A),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Augsburg won 3.

Recent form of Augsburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Union Berlin is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Union Berlin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Augsburg: Gouweleeuw J. (Knee Injury) Matsima C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Union Berlin: Bogdanov D. (Knock) Rothe T. (Injury) Skarke T. (Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Augsburg won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Augsburg won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.3:0.7).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Augsburg: 0.26% Union Berlin: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11:6	5	7
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4:17	-13	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Augsburg
German Bundesliga
11.01.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Augsburg	4:0 ✺
20.12.25	Augsburg - Werder Bremen	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Augsburg	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Hoffenheim - Augsburg	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTLWL
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
10.01.26	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Union Berlin	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Köln - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
06.12.25	Wolfsburg - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
17.05.25	Augsburg - Union Berlin	1:2
15.01.25	Union Berlin - Augsburg	0:2
12.04.24	Augsburg - Union Berlin	2:0
25.11.23	Union Berlin - Augsburg	1:1
06.05.23	Augsburg - Union Berlin	1:0
Club Friendly
07.01.23	Augsburg - Union Berlin	0:1
German Bundesliga
09.11.22	Union Berlin - Augsburg	2:2

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