Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Reichel T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus
Argentina	10:30	Disney+
Australia	00:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Brazil	10:30	Canal GOAT
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	10:30	Disney+
China	21:30	Migu
Colombia	08:30	Disney+
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 9
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, beIN Sports MAX 7
Germany	15:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports Extra 2
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	ZEE5
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	07:30	FOX One
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	02:30	beIN Connect
Norway	15:30	Viaplay
Peru	08:30	Disney+
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	14:30	DAZN / App
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	MBC Shahid
Singapore	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Thailand	20:30	AIS PLAY
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	Peacock
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+
International	13:30	OneFootball TV


	Union Berlin		Elversberg

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.50	2.70	Watch
	2.37	3.60	2.75
	2.45	3.55	2.60	Watch
	2.53	3.70	2.81
	2.44	3.85	2.64	Watch
	2.50	3.55	2.75
	2.54	3.55	2.74	Watch
	2.46	3.65	2.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.31)	3.62 ↓ (3.69)	2.71 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
38.5%

Draw
26.3%

Elversberg
35.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.1%

25.8%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

27.1%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Elversberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elversberg than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	42.9%	35.7%

Union Berlin - Elversberg Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Elversberg will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 17% – 68.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Union Berlin (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.62) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 19. Haberer J. 4. Van Den Bosch Z. 2. Uduokhai F. 15. Rothe T. 13. Schafer A. 20. Aebischer M. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 8. Khedira R. (C) 30. Imeri K. 21. Skarke T.	20. Kristof N. (G) 26. Sirch L. 19. Pinckert L. (C) 31. Rohr M. 21. Gunther L. 43. Keidel F. 8. Poreba L. 25. Petkov L. 10. Darvich N. 29. Zimmerschied T. 9. Futkeu N.
Substitutes
9. Burcu L. 7. Burke O. 32. Gray M. 6. Kemlein A. 17. Kohn D. 27. Ljubicic M. 14. Querfeld L. 31. Raab M. (G) 28. Trimmel C.	28. Boss T. (G) 39. Campbell C. 6. Conde A. 7. Krattenmacher M. 3. Le Joncour F. 2. Mickelson N. 42. Mokwa Ntusu D. 17. Schmahl F. 24. Schnellbacher L.
Coaches
Lustrinelli M.	Wagner V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Haberer J. 🟨,
21', Skarke T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Imeri K. ↓, Burcu L. ↑,
59', Zimmerschied T. ↓, Krattenmacher M. ↑,
70', Futkeu N. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
71', Gunther L. ↓, Mickelson N. ↑,
71', Darvich N. ↓, Mokwa Ntusu D. ↑,
77', Aebischer M. ↓, Trimmel C. ↑,
78', Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓, Gray M. ↑,
78', Skarke T. ↓, Burke O. ↑,
81', 1 - 0, Burcu L. ⚽,
86', Sirch L. ↓, Schmahl F. ↑,
90+2', Krattenmacher M. 🟨,
90+2', Schafer A. ↓, Kemlein A. ↑,

Preview

Union Berlin is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Elversberg is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Elversberg could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Union Berlin: Ilic A. (Illness) Juranovic J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Markgraf A. (Knee Injury) Nsoki S. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Elversberg: Gyamerah J. (Groin Injury) Onyeka F. (Foot Injury) Seifert L. (Ankle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Union Berlin: Burke O. (Achilles Tendon Injury).

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Elversberg	7	3	1	3	12:15	-3	10
17	Union Berlin	7	1	3	3	6:18	-12	6

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Elversberg: 0.2% Union Berlin: 0.13%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
Club Friendly
26.09.26	Rijeka - Union Berlin	0:1
German Bundesliga
18.09.26	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	7:0 ✺
11.09.26	Union Berlin - Schalke 04	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
29.08.26	Union Berlin - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 WLLLT
- SV Elversberg
German Bundesliga
20.09.26	Schalke 04 - Elversberg	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Elversberg - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Elversberg	3:4 ✺
29.08.26	Elversberg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Duisburg - Elversberg	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26 TLWWW

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