Match Info

VENEZUELA: Liga FUTVE - Apertura - Quadrangular - Round 4

Date: 11 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)


	Universidad Central		Inter de Barinas

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.6	6.5
	1.52	3.6	7
	1.66	3.42	5.44
	1.51	3.7	7.2
	1.44	3.7	7.5
	1.49	3.78	7.17
	1.49	3.5	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.87)	3.61 ↑ (3.3)	6.74 ↑ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Central
60.9%

Draw
25.4%

Inter de Barinas
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

28.2%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

27.8%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Central has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Universidad Central's performance.

Inter de Barinas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Inter de Barinas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Central than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Universidad Central that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Inter de Barinas than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Inter de Barinas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva M. (G) 2. Bonilla P. 5. Martinez A. 6. Villarreal G. 27. Carrillo D. 11. Vargas J. 8. Sole F. 30. Gonzalez A. 36. Infante J. 20. Alcocer B. 17. Hurtado B.	1. Forero A. (G) 25. Muriel J. 26. Deusa J. 14. Colmenarez G. 27. Rivera J. 10. Gomez D. 23. Ruiz M. 3. Urdaneta A. 17. Magallan C. 13. Martinez C. 8. Zapata J.
Substitutes
28. Alvarado J. 16. De Sousa D. 19. Galvan K. 21. Gonzalez J. 13. Melendez E. 44. Melendez G. 14. Mendoza K. 10. Ocanto A. 25. Polo Jean 22. Reyes J. (G) 99. Rivas E. 77. Soto J.	28. Alvarado J. 21. Da Silva J. 22. Forero L. (G) 4. Manzanilla J. 9. Osorio A. 24. Osorio J. 7. Perez J. 31. Pernia M. 30. Rivas J. 6. Rodriguez D.
Coaches
Sasso D.	Vielma L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Vargas J. ⚽,
15', Forero A. 🟨,
17', 2 - 0, Infante J. (Pen),
21', 3 - 0, Muriel J. (Own goal),
24', Carrillo D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rivera J. ↓, Da Silva J. ↑,
46', Muriel J. ↓, Manzanilla J. ↑,
46', Colmenarez G. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
46', Hurtado B. ↓, Ocanto A. ↑,
46', Martinez A. ↓, Melendez G. ↑,
46', Carrillo D. ↓, Galvan K. ↑,
56', Martinez C. ↓, Osorio A. ↑,
64', Sole F. ↓, Mendoza K. ↑,
70', Gomez D. ↓, Rivas J. ↑,
74', Alcocer B. ↓, Rivas E. ↑,
78', 4 - 0, Infante J. ⚽,
84', Zapata J. 🟨,
90+1', Galvan K. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Universidad Central is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Inter de Barinas is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Universidad Central is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Universidad Central won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Central de Venezuela FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
04.05.24	Inter de Barinas - Universidad Central	1:1 ✺
30.04.24	Universidad Central - Metropolitanos	0:0 ✺
27.04.24	Deportivo La Guaira - Universidad Central	0:2 ✺
21.04.24	Universidad Central - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:0 ✺
14.04.24	Caracas - Universidad Central	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TTWTT
- Inter de Barinas
Venezuelan Primera Division
04.05.24	Inter de Barinas - Universidad Central	1:1 ✺
30.04.24	Inter de Barinas - Deportivo La Guaira	1:2 ✺
27.04.24	Metropolitanos - Inter de Barinas	2:0 ✺
20.04.24	Inter de Barinas - Monagas	1:0 ✺
13.04.24	Angostura - Inter de Barinas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
04.05.24	Inter de Barinas - Universidad Central	1:1
18.02.24	Inter de Barinas - Universidad Central	0:1

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