Match Info

PERU: LIGA 1 - CLAUSURA - ROUND 19

Date: 30 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Estadio San Martin de Porres (Lima)


	Universidad San Martín		Cienciano

	1	X	2
	9	5	1.36	Watch
	6.5	4.75	1.34
	7.5	4.8	1.37
	7	4.9	1.33
	7.29	5.13	1.38
	7.5	4.6	1.33	Watch
	7.4	5.15	1.35	Watch
	7.2	5.2	1.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.42 ↑ (5.73)	4.94 ↑ (4.24)	1.35 ↓ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad San Martín
12.5%

Draw
18.8%

Cienciano
68.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.1%

21.7%

62.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

12.6%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad San Martín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Cienciano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cienciano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad San Martín than the current prediction. (+15.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Universidad San Martín, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-32.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cienciano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	18.2%	45.5%

Universidad San Martín - Cienciano Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Uni San Martín will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Cienciano will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cienciano: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Universidad San Martín won 1.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Universidad San Martín could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Cienciano is indisputable favorite.

Last 21 head-to-head matches Universidad San Martín won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 21-36.

Including matches at home between the teams Universidad San Martín won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad San Martín
Peruvian Liga 1
22.10.22	Deportivo Municipal - Universidad San Martín	2:1 ✺
19.10.22	Universidad San Martín - Universidad César Vallejo	1:1 ✺
16.10.22	ADT Tarma - Universidad San Martín	4:1 ✺
09.10.22	Carlos Stein - Universidad San Martín	1:1 ✺
04.10.22	Universidad San Martín - Cantolao	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTLTL
- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
23.10.22	Cienciano - Carlos Stein	6:2 ✺
20.10.22	Cantolao - Cienciano	3:1 ✺
16.10.22	Cienciano - Alianza Lima	0:2 ✺
07.10.22	Cajamarca - Cienciano	2:1 ✺
04.10.22	Cienciano - Sport Huancayo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
02.07.22	Cienciano - Universidad San Martín	5:3
30.07.21	Universidad San Martín - Cienciano	1:1
15.05.21	Cienciano - Universidad San Martín	0:1
30.11.20	Universidad San Martín - Cienciano	1:2
09.02.20	Cienciano - Universidad San Martín	4:0
29.11.15	Cienciano - Universidad San Martín	3:0
22.08.15	Universidad San Martín - Cienciano	1:1

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