Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Heroes de San Ramon (Cajamarca) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Espinoza M. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Peru	11:00	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	12:00	Fanatiz


	Cajamarca		Cienciano

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.4	2.88	Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.3
	2.28	3.3	3
	2.38	3.45	3.04
	2.28	3.55	2.92	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.9
	2.25	3.3	3.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.82)	3.33 ↓ (3.38)	2.87 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cajamarca
39.6%

Draw
27.9%

Cienciano
32.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.9%

27.5%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

27.2%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cajamarca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cajamarca's performance.

Cienciano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cienciano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cajamarca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cienciano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Cajamarca - Cienciano Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Cajamarca will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Cienciano will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cajamarca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Campos A. (C) 35. Paredes G. 27. Serra P. 2. Duarte B. 13. Caro D. 8. Dioses D. 16. Figuera A. 22. Camacho D. 10. Lliuya M. 19. Munoz A. 11. Arroyo A.	1. Falcon G. (G) 26. Aguilar R. 13. Nunez C. (C) 25. Salazar R. 14. Cavero S. 39. Caparo H. 88. Barreto G. 27. Yovera A. 19. Succar M. 8. Aguirre G. 37. Rojas A.
Substitutes
88. Arce L. 29. Barrios I. (G) 15. Cantt J. 6. Cavagna F. 18. Galvez S. 3. Ganoza M. 17. Garro L. 7. Nunez J. 14. Rasmussen M.	11. Bandiera N. 3. Becerra K. 31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 21. Garces C. 10. Hohberg A. 18. La Torre D. 16. Martinich M. 29. Robles A. 7. Souza Espana C.
Coaches
Bustos C.	Melgarejo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Campos A. ↓, Barrios I. ↑,
24', Lliuya M. 🟨,
24', Barreto G. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Camacho D. ⚽, Munoz A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Cavero S. ↓, Martinich M. ↑,
46', Salazar R. ↓, Hohberg A. ↑,
46', Rojas A. ↓, Souza Espana C. ↑,
46', Barreto G. ↓, Bandiera N. ↑,
46', Aguirre G. ↓, Garces C. ↑,
63', Serra P. 🟨,
63', Caro D. ↓, Ganoza M. ↑,
65', 2 - 0, Arroyo A. ⚽, Munoz A. (A),
66', Duarte B. 🟨,
69', 2 - 1, Hohberg A. (Penalty Awarded),
70', Camacho D. ↓, Arce L. ↑,
71', Caparo H. ↓, Robles A. ↑,
82', Munoz A. ↓, Cantt J. ↑,
82', Paredes G. ↓, Garro L. ↑,
90+7', 2 - 2, Hohberg A. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cajamarca won 0.

Cajamarca has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cienciano is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cajamarca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Cienciano: Arias Fierro S. D. (Lower Back Injury)

There are questionable in Cajamarca: Medina J. (Broken Hand)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cajamarca won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:30. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Cajamarca won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.1:0.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Cienciano	14	5	2	7	19:21	-2	17
18	Cajamarca	14	1	2	11	15:29	-14	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UTC De Cajamarca
Peruvian Liga 1
19.04.26	Sporting Cristal - Cajamarca	3:2 ✺
15.04.26	Cajamarca - Sport Huancayo	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Juan Pablo II College - Cajamarca	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Cajamarca - Alianza Atlético	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Universitario de Deportes - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLTL
- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
23.04.26	Los Chankas - Cienciano	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Cienciano - Moquegua	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	Cienciano - Academia Puerto Cabello	2:0 ✺
09.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Cienciano	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
03.04.26	Cienciano - ADT Tarma	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
13.10.25	Cajamarca - Cienciano	0:2
24.05.25	Cienciano - Cajamarca	6:1
13.09.24	Cajamarca - Cienciano	1:2
06.04.24	Cienciano - Cajamarca	1:1
08.07.23	Cienciano - Cajamarca	2:2
04.02.23	Cajamarca - Cienciano	Cajamarca awarded
07.10.22	Cajamarca - Cienciano	2:1

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