Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 2 May 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Perez R. B. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Alianza Lima		Cienciano

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.5	10	Watch
	1.31	4.4	8.5
	1.35	4.85	8.6	Watch
	1.36	4.75	10.23
	1.39	4.17	9.58	Watch
	1.35	4.4	10
	1.39	4.55	9.7	Watch
	1.35	4.85	8.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↑ (1.33)	4.56 ↓ (4.95)	9.4 ↑ (9.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
69.4%

Draw
20.6%

Cienciano
10%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.7%

19%

10.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.3%

18.1%

9.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Cienciano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Alianza Lima - Cienciano Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Cienciano (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cienciano (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Viscarra G. (G) 22. Enrique G. 5. Zambrano C. 6. Garces R. 21. Trauco M. 10. Ceppelini P. 4. Noriega E. 20. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 8. Castillo E. 34. Paolo Guerrero 27. Quevedo K.	29. Barrios I. (G) 7. Estrada J. 70. Valoyes J. 4. Amondarain M. 3. Gomez A. 14. Torrejon C. (C) 5. Arias Fierro S. D. 9. Romagnoli J. 20. Benites Vargas L. E. 25. Gentile G. 21. Garces C.
Substitutes
1. Campos A. (G) 51. Cari P. 15. Castillo J. 11. D'Arrigo J. 37. Delgado J. 7. Gaibor F. 14. Huaman M. 13. Lagos R. 16. Succar M.	24. Bolado J. (G) 10. Cueva C. 6. Galeano L. 11. La Torre D. 22. Neira C. 17. Noronha O. 27. Ortiz J. 26. Palomino R. 55. Ramua A.
Coaches
Gorosito N.	Desio C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Zambrano C. 🟨,
35', Garces C. 🟨,
41', Gomez A. ↓, Ortiz J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Benites Vargas L. E. 🟨,
59', Ceppelini P. ↓, Gaibor F. ↑,
61', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
70', Benites Vargas L. E. ↓, Cueva C. ↑,
72', Castillo E. 🟨,
79', Garces C. ↓, Noronha O. ↑,
79', Gentile G. ↓, La Torre D. ↑,
80', Romagnoli J. ↓, Palomino R. ↑,
83', Lavandeira Hernandez P. ↓, Cari P. ↑,
90+1', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
90+2', 0 - 1, Cueva C. (Pen),
90+2', Zambrano C. 🟨,
90+14', Arias Fierro S. D. 🟨,
90+15', Garces R. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima won 3.

Alianza Lima is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cienciano has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cienciano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alianza Lima is the clear favorite.

We predict that Alianza Lima will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:15. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Lima won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:2. (average 2:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Alianza Lima - Talleres de Córdoba	3:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
18.04.25	Alianza Lima - Los Chankas	1:0 ✺
14.04.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.25	São Paulo - Alianza Lima	2:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
05.04.25	Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WWWTT
- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
28.04.25	Cienciano - Sport Huancayo	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Deportes Iquique - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
19.04.25	Sport Boys - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
12.04.25	Cienciano - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Caracas - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
20.08.24	Alianza Lima - Cienciano	3:0
13.03.24	Cienciano - Alianza Lima	2:1
20.08.23	Cienciano - Alianza Lima	0:0
01.04.23	Alianza Lima - Cienciano	2:0
16.10.22	Cienciano - Alianza Lima	0:2
30.05.22	Alianza Lima - Cienciano	1:0
29.10.21	Cienciano - Alianza Lima	1:1

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