Match Info
Primera B - Apertura - Quadrangular - Round 6Date: 21 May 2026, ThursdayLocation: Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
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Unión Magdalena |
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Bogotá |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 Watch |
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1.5 |
3.6 |
5.75 |
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1.14 |
6.5 |
16.5 |
Watch |
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1.18 |
7.2 |
19.93 |
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1.23 |
5.42 |
14.03 |
Watch |
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1.18 |
5.75 |
12 |
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1.2 |
6.51 |
12 |
Watch |
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.24 ↓
(1.56) |
5.83 ↑
(3.4) |
13.37 ↑
(6.95) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
- The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Unión Magdalena
76.6% | Draw
16.3% | Bogotá
7.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Unión Magdalena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Unión Magdalena's performance.Bogotá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bogotá might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (-15.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Unión Magdalena that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bogotá than the current prediction. (+5.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bogotá could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Predictions
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Unión Magdalena will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Bogotá will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bogotá (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
1.  Cabezas V. (G)
17. Arrieta G.
7. Carreno A.
23. Congo J. (C)
27. Lerma J.
3. Mera D.
18.  Molina F.
5. Penaloza J.
29. Pimienta J.
16. Surmay O.
20. Vasquez J.
| 29. Aguilar A. (G)
99. Castillo D.
6. Castro K.
18. Cuero B.
3. Diaz S.
32. Gutierrez A.
21. Montien D.
13. Moreno Abadia J. C.
30. Moreno F. (C)
9. Perea S.
5. Sanchez J.
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| Substitutes |
2. Ballesteros M.
24. Cervantes M.
19. Diaz K.
4. Garcia G.
6. Ortiz D.
8. Perez J.
21. Romero J.
66.  Tasso M. (G)
26. Torres L.
| 16. Londono L.
15. Malagon J. P.
28. Medina M.
1. Osorno J. (G)
41. Pena J.
33. Perez J.
40. Rebolledo D.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 16', Moreno F. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
- 19', Perea S. 🟨,
- 28', Arrieta G. ↓, Cervantes M. ↑,
- 30', Gutierrez A. 🟨,
- 41', Congo J. 🟨,
- 41', Sanchez J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Montien D. ↓, Medina M. ↑,
- 60', Pimienta J. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
- 76', 🟨,
- 79', Lerma J. ↓, Romero J. ↑,
- 79', Congo J. ↓, Diaz K. ↑,
- 79', Cervantes M. ↓, Ballesteros M. ↑,
- 85', Perea S. ↓, Rebolledo D. ↑,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 3.Unión Magdalena has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).Bogotá is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0). In this match, Unión Magdalena is the undisputed favorite.In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:23. (average 1.4:1.2).Including home matches between the teams, Unión Magdalena won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:4. (average 1.8:0.4).
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Standings
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 7 | Bogota | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 7 |
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| 16 | U. Magdalena | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0:2 | -2 | 1 |
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Colombian Primera B | | | 27.04.26 | Bogotá - Unión Magdalena | 1:1 | | 26.01.26 | Unión Magdalena - Bogotá | 0:0 | | 25.07.24 | Unión Magdalena - Bogotá | 3:2 | | 02.02.24 | Bogotá - Unión Magdalena | 0:2 | | 23.11.21 | Unión Magdalena - Bogotá | 4:1 | | 17.11.21 | Bogotá - Unión Magdalena | 2:1 | | 01.10.21 | Bogotá - Unión Magdalena | 3:1 |
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