Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Quadrangular - Round 5

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano de Techo (Bogotá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play, Win Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Bogotá		Real Cartagena

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.87	3.1	2.2
	3.75	3.25	1.92	Watch
	3.63	2.91	1.92
	3.92	2.73	2.23	Watch
	3.5	2.9	2
	4.06	3.14	1.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.62 ↑ (3.05)	3.01 ↓ (3.23)	2.04 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bogotá
25.1%

Draw
30.3%

Real Cartagena
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

28.6%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

27.3%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bogotá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bogotá's form might have worsened.

Real Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bogotá than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Cartagena than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Bogotá - Real Cartagena Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Real Cartagena will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Osorno J. (G) 99. Castillo D. 6. Castro K. 18. Cuero B. 32. Gutierrez A. 28. Medina M. 13. Moreno Abadia J. C. 30. Moreno F. 9. Perea S. 33. Perez J. 5. Sanchez J.	22. Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 17. Aleman J. 7. Barrera J. 26. Garcia N. 8. Guevara L. 30. Herrera J. 23. Lora R. 10. Montero F. (C) 19. Moreno J. 14. Pino D. 3. Redondo Garcia E. H.
Substitutes
29. Aguilar A. (G) 14. Alfonso A. 36. Canizalez S. 3. Diaz S. 4. Londono L. 15. Malagon J. P. 31. Reyes D.	4. Barco S. 9. Manotas M. 27. Melendez A. 1. Montes A. (G) 20. Nieva J. 28. Paternina C. 5. Solarte Espana J. A. 11. Yanes L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', Perea S. 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Castro K. (Penalty Awarded),
42', 1 - 1, Lora R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Osorno J. ↓, Aguilar A. ↑,
46', Guevara L. ↓, Nieva J. ↑,
53', Moreno F. 🟨,
63', Aleman J. ↓, Manotas M. ↑,
63', Barrera J. ↓, Melendez A. ↑,
65', Moreno Abadia J. C. 🟨,
70', Perea S. ↓, Diaz S. ↑,
71', Perez J. 🟨,
80', 1 - 2, Melendez A. ⚽,
81', Herrera J. ↓, Solarte Espana J. A. ↑,
87', Castillo D. 🟨,
89', Montero F. ↓, Yanes L. ↑,
90+2', Cuero B. ↓, Reboledo D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bogotá won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Bogotá won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 7:22. (average 0.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Bogotá won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.3:1.2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cartagena	11	4	3	4	19:14	5	15
12	Bogota	11	3	3	5	9:13	-4	12

Last Results with these Odds

Real Cartagena - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.17%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bogotá FC
Colombian Primera B
13.05.26	Bogotá - Barranquilla	1:1 ✺
08.05.26	Barranquilla - Bogotá	2:0 ✺
02.05.26	Real Cartagena - Bogotá	2:0 ✺
27.04.26	Bogotá - Unión Magdalena	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Real Santander - Bogotá	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLLTW
- Real Cartagena
Colombian Primera B
12.05.26	Unión Magdalena - Real Cartagena	3:0 ✺
08.05.26	Real Cartagena - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Real Cartagena - Bogotá	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Barranquilla - Real Cartagena	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Real Cartagena - Barranquilla	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
02.05.26	Real Cartagena - Bogotá	2:0
09.02.26	Bogotá - Real Cartagena	0:1
21.07.25	Bogotá - Real Cartagena	0:3
09.02.25	Real Cartagena - Bogotá	5:0
13.08.24	Bogotá - Real Cartagena	0:1
23.02.24	Real Cartagena - Bogotá	3:0
20.08.23	Real Cartagena - Bogotá	3:3

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