Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Quadrangular - Round 3

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Jaime Morón León (Cartagena)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Real Cartagena		Unión Magdalena

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.1	3
	2.15	3.25	3.15	Watch
	2.22	3.27	3.24
	2.19	3.31	3.22	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3
	2.16	3.13	3.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.95)	3.19 ↑ (3.1)	3.13 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Cartagena
42.4%

Draw
28.5%

Unión Magdalena
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

28.8%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

29.6%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Cartagena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Unión Magdalena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Cartagena than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	22.2%	33.3%

Real Cartagena - Unión Magdalena Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Real Cartagena will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Unión Magdalena will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Cartagena: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 17. Aleman J. 6. Escobar A. 26. Graciano C. 30. Herrera J. 23. Lora R. 9. Manotas M. 10. Montero F. (C) 14. Pino D. 21. Rodriguez J. 24. Tegue G.	66. Tasso M. (G) 7. Carreno A. 23. Congo J. (C) 9. Iguaran C. 27. Lerma J. 3. Mera D. 10. Mercado J. 18. Molina F. 6. Ortiz D. 16. Surmay O. 20. Vasquez J.
Substitutes
15. Florez C. 8. Guevara L. 1. Montes A. (G) 19. Moreno J. 20. Nieva J. 28. Paternina C. 5. Solarte Espana J. A. 29. Tamayo F. 11. Yanes L.	17. Arrieta G. 1. Cabezas V. (G) 24. Cervantes M. 28. Franco S. 4. Garcia G. 22. Giraldo J. 8. Perez J. 14. Pinto J. 25. Sagrera W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Carreno A. ⚽,
23', 1 - 1, Rodriguez J. ⚽,
27', Iguaran C. ↓, Arrieta G. ↑,
28', Mera D. 🟨,
38', 2 - 1, Manotas M. ⚽,
44', Rodriguez J. ↓, Guevara L. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Molina F. 🟨,
67', Mercado J. 🟨,
72', Manotas M. ↓, Paternina C. ↑,
72', Aleman J. ↓, Solarte Espana J. A. ↑,
72', Mercado J. ↓, Giraldo J. ↑,
77', Herrera J. ↓, Yanes L. ↑,
80', Guevara L. 🟨,
84', Pino D. 🟨,
84', Congo J. 🟨,
86', Congo J. ↓, Cervantes M. ↑,
86', Lerma J. ↓, Franco S. ↑,
87', Ortiz D. 🟨,
90+2', Montero F. 🟨,

Preview

Real Cartagena has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Unión Magdalena is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Real Cartagena might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Cartagena won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Cartagena won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cartagena	11	4	3	4	19:14	5	15
11	U. Magdalena	11	3	3	5	10:12	-2	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Cartagena
Colombian Primera B
02.05.26	Real Cartagena - Bogotá	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Barranquilla - Real Cartagena	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Real Cartagena - Barranquilla	1:3 ✺
13.04.26	Patriotas - Real Cartagena	1:0 ✺
31.03.26	Real Cartagena - Deportes Quindío	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTLLW
- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera B
04.05.26	Unión Magdalena - Barranquilla	2:0 ✺
27.04.26	Bogotá - Unión Magdalena	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Atlético Cali - Unión Magdalena	1:3 ✺
13.04.26	Unión Magdalena - Internacional de Palmira	0:2 ✺
09.04.26	Unión Magdalena - Envigado	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
22.03.26	Real Cartagena - Unión Magdalena	2:1
25.08.24	Real Cartagena - Unión Magdalena	2:0
11.03.24	Unión Magdalena - Real Cartagena	2:2
31.08.21	Unión Magdalena - Real Cartagena	1:0
15.02.21	Unión Magdalena - Real Cartagena	2:1

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