Match Info

POLAND: III LIGA - GROUP I - ROUND 14

Date: 29 October 2022, Saturday


	Ursus Warszawa		Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	7	4.2	1.37
	5.5	4	1.48
	4.3	3.55	1.62
	4.58	3.86	1.46
	6.35	4.4	1.4	Watch
	4.65	4	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.4 ↑ (3.65)	4 ↑ (3.7)	1.48 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ursus Warszawa
16.7%

Draw
22.5%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
60.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.9%

24.6%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

22.5%

46.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ursus Warszawa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ursus Warszawa's form might have worsened.

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ursus Warszawa than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ursus Warszawa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.2%	0%	70.8%

Ursus Warszawa - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Ursus Warszawa will win (votes: 7 - 29.2%). Grodzisk Mazowiecki will win (votes: 17 - 70.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grodzisk Mazowiecki: 52.6% – 89%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Ursus Warszawa is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ursus Warszawa won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Ursus Warszawa won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RKS Ursus Warszawa
Polish Division 3 - Group I
22.10.22	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Ursus Warszawa	1:0 ✺
15.10.22	Ursus Warszawa - Legionovia Legionowo	1:3 ✺
08.10.22	Unia Skierniewice - Ursus Warszawa	2:0 ✺
01.10.22	Ursus Warszawa - ŁKS Łódź II	2:2 ✺
24.09.22	Concordia Elbląg - Ursus Warszawa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLLTT
- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
22.10.22	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Sokół Ostróda	1:2 ✺
16.10.22	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:0 ✺
08.10.22	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Pelikan Łowicz	1:2 ✺
01.10.22	Błonianka Błonie - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:5 ✺
24.09.22	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
15.08.20	Ursus Warszawa - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2
21.09.19	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Ursus Warszawa	1:0

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