Match Info

World Championship - Qualification - Round 17

Date: 4 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Tello F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play
Australia	SBS On Demand
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
China	ZhiBo8
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
India	FanCode, FanCode
Israel	Sport 1
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	Canal 5
Norway	VG+
Peru	America TV, ATV, Movistar Deportes, Movistar TV App, Zapping Sports
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV6
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV, AUFTV, DSports 1, Eventos Montecable, Flow, NS Eventos, TCC 2
Usa	Fanatiz


	Uruguay		Peru

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.1	8.5	Watch
	1.36	4.5	9.25
	1.44	4.15	8.8
	1.47	4.09	8.68
	1.44	3.84	9.09	Watch
	1.3	4.6	12
	1.46	4.29	9.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.3)	4.22 ↓ (5.08)	9.45 ↓ (10.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Uruguay
67.3%

Draw
22.6%

Peru
10.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.7%

18.5%

8.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Uruguay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Uruguay's form might have worsened.

Peru has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.4%	21.1%	10.5%

Uruguay - Peru Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Uruguay will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Peru will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uruguay: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Uruguay (votes: 3 - 60%). Peru (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.25 - Peru (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Uruguay (votes: 3 - 50%). Peru (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rochet S. (G) Internacional 13. Varela G. Flamengo RJ 3. Caceres S. Club America 16. Olivera M. Napoli 22. Piquerez J. Palmeiras 15. Valverde F. (C) Real Madrid 6. Bentancur R. Tottenham 10. de Arrascaeta G. Flamengo RJ 11. Pellistri F. Panathinaikos 7. Aguirre R. Club America 18. Rodriguez B. Club America	1. Gallese P. (G) Orlando City 17. Advincula L. Boca Juniors 15. Garces R. A. Lima 2. Abram L. Sporting Cristal 4. Lopez M. FC Copenhagen 22. Quevedo K. A. Lima 16. Gonzales C. Sporting Cristal 13. Noriega E. Gremio 19. Yotun Y. (C) Sporting Cristal 7. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. Vancouver Whitecaps 9. Ramos L. America De Cali
Substitutes
4. Amaro K. Liverpool M. 2. Bueno S. Wolves 12. Israel F. (G) Torino 20. Martinez E. Palmeiras 23. Mele S. (G) Monterrey 19. Olivera C. Gremio 14. Rodriguez J. Vasco 8. Sanabria J. Atletico San Luis 5. Ugarte M. Manchester United 17. Vina M. Flamengo RJ 9. Vinas F. R. Oviedo 21. Zalazar R. Braga	18. Burlamaqui A. A. Lima 12. Caceda C. (G) FBC Melgar 8. Concha J. Universitario de Deportes 21. Enriquez D. (G) Sporting Cristal 23. Grimaldo J. Riga FC 3. Inga C. Universitario de Deportes 10. Pena S. A. Lima 14. Pretell J. Sporting Cristal 11. Rivera J. Universitario de Deportes 20. Sonne O. Burnley 6. Trauco M. A. Lima 5. Zambrano C. A. Lima
Coaches
Bielsa M.	Ibanez Holzmann O. M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Lopez M. 🟨,
14', 1 - 0, Aguirre R. ⚽, Varela G. (A),
31', Gonzales C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gonzales C. ↓, Pena S. ↑,
46', Cabrera Nakamura K. G. ↓, Grimaldo J. ↑,
58', 2 - 0, de Arrascaeta G. ⚽, Aguirre R. (A),
66', Yotun Y. ↓, Concha J. ↑,
69', Bentancur R. 🟨,
69', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, Ugarte M. ↑,
74', Aguirre R. ↓, Vinas F. ↑,
77', Pellistri F. ↓, Zalazar R. ↑,
78', Pena S. 🟨,
79', Olivera M. 🟨,
80', 3 - 0, Vinas F. ⚽, Rodriguez B. (A),
82', Quevedo K. ↓, Rivera J. ↑,
87', Noriega E. ↓, Pretell J. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ World Championship and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uruguay won 2.

In this match, Uruguay is the obvious favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Uruguay won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Uruguay
FIFA World Cup
10.06.25	Uruguay - Venezuela	2:0 ✺
05.06.25	Paraguay - Uruguay	2:0 ✺
25.03.25	Bolivia - Uruguay	0:0 ✺
21.03.25	Uruguay - Argentina	0:1 ✺
19.11.24	Brazil - Uruguay	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLTLT
- Peru
FIFA World Cup
10.06.25	Peru - Ecuador	0:0 ✺
06.06.25	Colombia - Peru	0:0 ✺
25.03.25	Venezuela - Peru	1:0 ✺
20.03.25	Peru - Bolivia	3:1 ✺
19.11.24	Argentina - Peru	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

FIFA World Cup
11.10.24	Peru - Uruguay	1:0
24.03.22	Uruguay - Peru	1:0
02.09.21	Peru - Uruguay	1:1
Friendly
15.10.19	Peru - Uruguay	1:1
11.10.19	Uruguay - Peru	1:0
Copa America
29.06.19	Uruguay - Peru	0:1 penalties
FIFA World Cup
28.03.17	Peru - Uruguay	2:1

Uruguay - Peru: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide