Match Info

Superettan - Round 19

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Finnvedsvallen (Varnamo)

Referee: Beigi R. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Värnamo		Östersund

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.25	2.63
	2.45	3.40	2.55
	2.45	3.3	2.72
	2.51	3.55	2.85
	2.56	3.37	2.65	Watch
	2.4	3.45	2.8
	2.45	3.38	2.74	Watch
	2.41	3.3	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.61)	3.38 ↓ (3.39)	2.7 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Värnamo
38%

Draw
27.6%

Östersund
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

27.1%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

26.6%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Värnamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Östersund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Östersund than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Värnamo - Östersund Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Keto H. (G) 18. Motaraghebjafarpour A. 2. Rapp J. 6. Andersson H. 4. Ohlsson S. 8. Andersson H. 7. Johansson C. 10. Claesson V. (C) 3. Bjornstrom A. 14. Antonsson M. 9. Meriluoto K.	12. Forsell R. (G) 27. Miljanovic D. 19. Widgren D. (C) 14. Anyanwu S. 3. Azzi H. 5. Qasem A. A. 16. Begic A. 17. Edwards C. 8. Ozkan E. 10. Marklund S. 22. Ali J.
Substitutes
21. Abdulrazak I. 33. Akinfenwa M. 15. Coulibaly S. 28. Diallo M. C. 19. Freij E. 13. Jansson S. 16. Kujundzic A. 39. Sapielak B. (G) 34. Zulovic B.	21. Bozickovic L. 15. Molls D. 7. Odenlind G. 18. Palomino M. 1. Uppenberg M. (G) 4. Westerberg J. 29. Worke E. Y.
Coaches
Bergstrand K.	Miljanovic N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Meriluoto K. ⚽, Bjornstrom A. (A),
22', Ozkan E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', Ali J. ↓, Palomino M. ↑,
68', Johansson C. 🟨,
68', Andersson H. ↓, Akinfenwa M. ↑,
74', Meriluoto K. ↓, Jansson S. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Palomino M. ⚽, Edwards C. (A),
77', Ozkan E. ↓, Molls D. ↑,
85', Andersson H. ↓, Freij E. ↑,
85', Claesson V. ↓, Zulovic B. ↑,
90', Zulovic B. 🟨,
90+3', Edwards C. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 in the zone Division 1 ~ Norra (Relegation) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Allsvenskan (Promotion: )).

Värnamo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Östersund is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Värnamo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Värnamo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Outrights of Swedish Superettan for now

Ostersund: 0.16%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Ostersund	25	11	10	4	33:24	9	43
11	Varnamo	25	8	5	12	33:45	-12	29

Last Results with these Odds

Östersund - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.68%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Superettan
11.08.26	Helsingborg - Värnamo	1:2 ✺
03.08.26	Örebro - Värnamo	1:3 ✺
25.07.26	Värnamo - Brage	0:0 ✺
19.07.26	Värnamo - Ljungskile	2:3 ✺
28.06.26	Landskrona - Värnamo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWTLL
- Östersunds FK
Swedish Superettan
07.08.26	Östersund - Sundsvall	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Östersund - Öster	1:0 ✺
26.07.26	Norrby - Östersund	2:2 ✺
18.07.26	Östersund - Landskrona	2:0 ✺
27.06.26	Sundsvall - Östersund	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Superettan
03.05.26	Östersund - Värnamo	3:2

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