Match Info

Superettan - Round 15

Date: 19 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Finnvedsvallen (Varnamo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	TV4 Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Värnamo		Ljungskile

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.40	2.90	Watch
	2.25	3.30	2.85
	2.23	3.45	2.85
	2.32	3.65	3.07
	2.62	3.5	2.53	Watch
	2.25	3.40	3.00
	2.26	3.54	2.91	Watch
	2.21	3.35	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.72)	3.45 ↓ (3.48)	2.88 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Värnamo
40.8%

Draw
26.9%

Ljungskile
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

26.8%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

26.3%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Värnamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Värnamo's performance.

Ljungskile has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ljungskile might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Värnamo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ljungskile than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ljungskile could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	41.7%	50%

Värnamo - Ljungskile Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ljungskile will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ljungskile: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Ljungskile (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ljungskile (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Keto H. (G) 18. Motaraghebjafarpour A. 6. Andersson H. 5. Bergqvist D. 3. Bjornstrom A. 34. Zulovic B. 7. Johansson C. 16. Kujundzic A. 9. Meriluoto K. 14. Antonsson M. 10. Claesson V. (C)	1. Eriksson L. (G) 16. Reljanovic E. 5. Ornblom F. 69. Maric I. 23. Uzel M. 71. Ljung D. 10. Ambroz F. (C) 9. Rasheed A. 18. Borstam H. 11. Omar S. 13. Nilsson W.
Substitutes
21. Abdulrazak I. 8. Andersson H. 17. Bozicevic F. 19. Freij E. 13. Jansson S. 4. Ohlsson S. 2. Rapp J. 23. Robertsson L. 39. Sapielak B. (G)	58. Adrian S. 27. Boren A. 15. Frisk D. 12. Hogblom S. 20. Hogg C. (G) 3. Johanstrommer Hedin G. 14. Lagerlof D. 2. Nafors Dahlin R. 8. Solheim M.
Coaches
Bergstrand K.	Jensen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Johansson C. 🟨,
33', 0 - 1, Uzel M. ⚽, Omar S. (A),
45+1', Bergqvist D. ↓, Robertsson L. ↑,
45+3', Reljanovic E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Zulovic B. ↓, Andersson H. ↑,
57', 0 - 2, Rasheed A. ⚽, Omar S. (A),
59', Rasheed A. ↓, Boren A. ↑,
61', 1 - 2, Claesson V. ⚽, Bjornstrom A. (A),
64', 1 - 3, Omar S. ⚽, Nilsson W. (A),
66', 2 - 3, Meriluoto K. ⚽, Johansson C. (A),
67', Borstam H. ↓, Lagerlof D. ↑,
67', Omar S. ↓, Frisk D. ↑,
76', Motaraghebjafarpour A. ↓, Bozicevic F. ↑,
84', Nilsson W. ↓, Solheim M. ↑,
84', Uzel M. ↓, Nafors Dahlin R. ↑,
84', Kujundzic A. ↓, Abdulrazak I. ↑,
86', Maric I. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 1.

Värnamo is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Ljungskile has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Ljungskile will win today's game, with odds of 2.48.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Värnamo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.8:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Varnamo	25	8	5	12	33:45	-12	29
12	Ljungskile	25	6	7	12	31:38	-7	25

Last Results with these Odds

Värnamo - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 34.24%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Superettan
28.06.26	Landskrona - Värnamo	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	Brage - Värnamo	5:1 ✺
16.06.26	Värnamo - Helsingborg	0:1 ✺
09.06.26	Öster - Värnamo	3:0 ✺
31.05.26	Värnamo - United Nordic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Ljungskile SK
Swedish Superettan
27.06.26	Ljungskile - Örebro	3:2 ✺
22.06.26	Oddevold - Ljungskile	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Ljungskile - Östersund	1:1 ✺
09.06.26	Brage - Ljungskile	2:2 ✺
30.05.26	Ljungskile - Varbergs BoIS	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Division 1 Södra
29.09.19	Ljungskile - Värnamo	3:0
02.06.19	Värnamo - Ljungskile	0:2
Swedish Superettan
02.10.16	Ljungskile - Värnamo	2:0
10.04.16	Värnamo - Ljungskile	0:2
04.10.15	Ljungskile - Värnamo	0:2
07.04.15	Värnamo - Ljungskile	2:1
29.09.14	Värnamo - Ljungskile	1:4

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