Match Info

Allsvenskan - Round 9

Date: 15 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Finnvedsvallen (Varnamo)

Referee: Maqedonci G. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Max, Veikkaus TV
Sweden	Discovery+, max Extra 5, Max, TV4 Play


	Värnamo		Malmö

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.1	1.55	Watch
	6	4.2	1.5
	5.5	4.35	1.59	Watch
	6.11	4.23	1.56
	5.87	4.14	1.57	Watch
	6	3.9	1.5
	5.5	4.15	1.59	Watch
	5.5	4.3	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.75 ↑ (5.1)	4.17 ↑ (4.1)	1.56 ↓ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Värnamo
16.5%

Draw
22.7%

Malmö
60.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.6%

23.2%

58.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.8%

21.8%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Värnamo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Malmö has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Malmö than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Malmö, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.3%	0%	89.7%

Värnamo - Malmö Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Malmö (2.02) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Malmö will win (25 of 26 users predict this - 96.15%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.75% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Malmö will win (16 of 16 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Malmö (votes: 18 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Keto H. (G) 5. Larsson V. 6. Andersson H. 24. Grozdanic E. 3. Bjornstrom A. 8. Le Roux L. 11. Wenderson 10. Zeljkovic A. 18. Alsalkhadi M. 22. Thern S. (C) 15. Cibicki P.	1. Ricardo Friedrich (G) 17. Stryger J. 18. Jansson P. 35. Zatterstrom N. 2. Karlsson J. 38. Bolin H. 7. Rosengren O. 23. Johnsen L. (C) 22. Ali T. 11. Ekong E. 32. Gudjohnsen D. T.
Substitutes
21. Abdulrazak I. 39. Andersson V. (G) 32. Bilalovic K. 7. Johansson C. 26. Johansson C. 28. Junior Adjei F. 4. Mohammed R. 2. Rapp J. 20. Winsth F.	16. Berg O. 20. Botheim E. 25. Busanello 40. Busuladzic K. 10. Christiansen A. 33. Ellborg M. (G) 29. Haksabanovic S. 9. Kiese I. 6. Lewicki O.
Coaches
Robledo J.	Rydstrom H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Gudjohnsen D. T. ⚽, Rosengren O. (A),
34', 1 - 1, Alsalkhadi M. ⚽, Wenderson (A),
39', 1 - 2, Jansson P. ⚽, Rosengren O. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Rosengren O. 🟨,
70', Zeljkovic A. ↓, Johansson C. ↑,
70', Gudjohnsen D. T. ↓, Botheim E. ↑,
71', Ekong E. ↓, Christiansen A. ↑,
78', Thern S. ↓, Junior Adjei F. ↑,
78', Cibicki P. ↓, Bilalovic K. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Junior Adjei F. ⚽, Johansson C. (A),
84', Alsalkhadi M. ↓, Abdulrazak I. ↑,
86', Botheim E. ↓, Kiese I. ↑,
87', Karlsson J. ↓, Busanello ↑,
90+1', Rosengren O. ↓, Haksabanovic S. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 0.

Värnamo has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Malmö's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Malmö is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Malmö: Dahlin J. (Knee Injury) Haksabanovic S. (Inactive) Holmquist S. (Back Injury) Jansson P. (Inactive) Lajqi G. (Knee Injury) Sigurdsson A. (Inactive) Tinnerholm A. (Groin Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:15. (average 0.4:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Värnamo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:9. (average 0.3:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Allsvenskan
10.05.25	GAIS - Värnamo	1:1 ✺
03.05.25	Halmstad - Värnamo	4:2 ✺
27.04.25	Värnamo - Norrköping	1:3 ✺
24.04.25	Värnamo - AIK	1:2 ✺
20.04.25	Brommapojkarna - Värnamo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLLLL
- Malmö FF
Swedish Allsvenskan
11.05.25	Degerfors - Malmö	1:4 ✺
05.05.25	Malmö - Brommapojkarna	1:2 ✺
29.04.25	Malmö - Öster	2:0 ✺
23.04.25	Hammarby - Malmö	2:0 ✺
18.04.25	Malmö - Sirius	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
06.10.24	Malmö - Värnamo	1:1
15.04.24	Värnamo - Malmö	0:4
31.07.23	Malmö - Värnamo	3:1
10.06.23	Värnamo - Malmö	1:3
09.10.22	Malmö - Värnamo	0:0
21.04.22	Värnamo - Malmö	0:0
Svenska Cupen
05.03.22	Malmö - Värnamo	2:0

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