Match Info

Allsvenskan - Round 4

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Eleda Stadion (Malmö)

Referee: Karlsson K. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Norway	VG+
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play


	Malmö		Sirius

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.57	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.68
	2.56	3.66	2.76
	2.48	3.64	2.67	Watch
	2.45	3.3	2.6
	2.45	3.48	2.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.06)	3.51 ↓ (3.88)	2.66 ↓ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Malmö
38%

Draw
26.7%

Sirius
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

24.4%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

24%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Malmö has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Malmö's form might have worsened.

Sirius has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sirius's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Malmö than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Malmö, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sirius than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sirius, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Malmö - Sirius Predictions

Users Predictions: Malmö will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Dahlin J. (C) 17. Stryger J. 4. Kurtulus B. 19. Rosler C. 25. Busanello 22. Ali T. 7. Rosengren O. 47. Lundbergh T. 24. Sjostrand O. 29. Haksabanovic S. 20. Botheim E.	34. Celic D. (G) 5. Castegren H. (C) 2. Soumah M. 4. Anker T. 22. Krusnell O. 21. Nilden C. 6. Lindberg M. 7. Persson J. 10. Heier M. 11. Bjerkebo I. 9. Ure R.
Substitutes
40. Busuladzic K. 5. Djuric A. 32. Gudjohnsen D. T. 23. John N. 6. Karabelyov Y. 2. Karlsson J. 50. Nieroth W. (G) 8. Sigurdsson A. 37. Skogmar A.	25. Adindu O. 26. Andersson H. 1. Diawara I. (G) 20. Ekstrom V. 12. Hook I. 17. Jonsson N. 27. Magnusson B. 8. Nartey M. 24. Svensson V.
Coaches
Ramirez M.	Engelmark A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Soumah M. ⚽,
20', Kurtulus B. ↓, Djuric A. ↑,
45+3', Rosengren O. 🟨,
45+3', Persson J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Lundbergh T. ↓, Skogmar A. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Haksabanovic S. ⚽,
58', Nilden C. ↓, Svensson V. ↑,
58', Persson J. ↓, Jonsson N. ↑,
60', 1 - 2, Bjerkebo I. ⚽, Lindberg M. (A),
65', Skogmar A. 🟨,
65', 1 - 3, Ure R. ⚽, Jonsson N. (A),
68', Sjostrand O. ↓, Gudjohnsen D. T. ↑,
77', 2 - 3, Skogmar A. ⚽, Stryger J. (A),
78', Ali T. ↓, John N. ↑,
78', Haksabanovic S. ↓, Sigurdsson A. ↑,
86', Bjerkebo I. ↓, Ekstrom V. ↑,
89', Jonsson N. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Malmö won 2.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Malmö might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Malmö: Christiansen A. (Inactive) Ekong E. (Inactive)

There will not play in Sirius: Milleskog N. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Sirius: Sandberg S. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Malmö won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 55:24. (average 2.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Malmö won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 29:9. (average 2.6:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	53:28	25	54
8	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	37:33	4	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Malmö FF
Swedish Allsvenskan
17.04.26	Djurgården - Malmö	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Malmö - GAIS	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Örgryte - Malmö	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
26.03.26	Malmö - Landskrona	1:0 ✺
20.03.26	Malmö - Kalmar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWTWT
- IK Sirius
Swedish Allsvenskan
18.04.26	Sirius - Västerås SK	4:1 ✺
13.04.26	Sirius - Hammarby	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Degerfors - Sirius	0:3 ✺
Svenska Cupen
22.03.26	Hammarby - Sirius	4:3 penalties ✺
15.03.26	Sirius - IFK Göteborg	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
05.10.25	Sirius - Malmö	5:1
18.04.25	Malmö - Sirius	1:1
27.07.24	Malmö - Sirius	0:1
19.07.24	Sirius - Malmö	3:4
28.08.23	Sirius - Malmö	1:3
01.07.23	Malmö - Sirius	3:0
07.08.22	Sirius - Malmö	2:1

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