Match Info

Liga Profesional - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Dovalo P. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Austria	Laola1
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Canada	fubo Sports Network
Germany	Laola1
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Vélez Sársfield		Estudiantes La Plata

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.55	3.20	Watch
	2.70	2.75	2.95
	2.63	2.75	3.10	Watch
	2.88	2.79	3.15
	2.39	2.97	3.37
	2.75	2.75	3.05
	2.72	2.63	3.41	Watch
	2.70	2.75	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.29)	2.74 ↓ (2.89)	3.16 ↓ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
35.3%

Draw
34.6%

Estudiantes La Plata
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

32.1%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

31%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vélez Sársfield's form might have worsened.

Estudiantes La Plata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vélez Sársfield, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes La Plata than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	71.4%	14.3%

Vélez Sársfield - Estudiantes La Plata Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Estudiantes will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchiori T. (G) 4. Garcia J. 32. Silvero T. 2. Mammana E. 3. Gomez E. (C) 29. Aliendro R. 8. Robertone L. 11. Pellegrini M. 37. Policella J. 18. Escobar S. 77. Martinez R.	16. Muslera F. (C) 20. Meza E. 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 24. Palacios T. 13. Benedetti G. 8. Gabriel Neves 22. Castro A. 18. Cetre E. 31. Rodriguez B. 28. Aguirre B. 19. Gaich A.
Substitutes
39. Aguirre T. 35. Arias M. 5. Baeza C. 19. Cristaldo L. 48. Feler L. 15. Godoy D. 22. Lanzini M. 16. Magallan L. 47. Pereyra A. 30. Piola L. 23. Sanguinetti F. (G) 17. Veron A.	27. Alario L. 17. Burgos J. 9. Carrillo G. 32. Correa J. 39. Elias J. 1. Iacovich F. (G) 40. Mancuso E. 34. Monsalve M. 4. Nunez S. 29. Perez Fabricio 21. Piovi L. 7. Sosa J.
Coaches
Barros Schelotto G.	Medina A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Silvero T. 🟨,
33', Castro A. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Martinez R. ⚽, Silvero T. (A),
45+1', Palacios T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gabriel Neves ↓, Piovi L. ↑,
46', Aguirre B. ↓, Correa J. ↑,
47', Cetre E. 🟨,
56', Piovi L. 🟨,
65', Gaich A. ↓, Carrillo G. ↑,
65', Cetre E. ↓, Burgos J. ↑,
65', Policella J. ↓, Lanzini M. ↑,
73', Robertone L. ↓, Feler L. ↑,
73', Martinez R. ↓, Aguirre T. ↑,
73', Pellegrini M. 🟨,
77', Gonzalez Pirez L. ↓, Nunez S. ↑,
90', Pellegrini M. ↓, Arias M. ↑,
90+5', Correa J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Vélez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Vélez: Gordon J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Estudiantes: Arzamendia S. (Knee Injury) Palacios T. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:27. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Vélez won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 1.9:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Vélez Sársfield - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.41%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Copa Argentina
02.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Boca Juniors	0:1 penalties ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.08.26	Deportivo Riestra - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	River Plate - Vélez Sársfield	2:2 ✺
17.08.26	Vélez Sársfield - Defensa y Justicia	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Boca Juniors - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LTTTT
- Estudiantes La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
31.08.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Newells Old Boys	0:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
27.08.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Barracas Central	3:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
23.08.26	Sarmiento de Junín - Estudiantes La Plata	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.08.26	Universidad Católica - Estudiantes La Plata	0:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.08.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Gimnasia La Plata	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.03.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Vélez Sársfield	0:1
Argentinian International Super Cup
08.07.25	Estudiantes La Plata - Vélez Sársfield	0:2
Argentinian Trofeo de Campeones
21.12.24	Vélez Sársfield - Estudiantes La Plata	0:3
Argentinian Liga Profesional
23.09.24	Vélez Sársfield - Estudiantes La Plata	2:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
05.05.24	Estudiantes La Plata - Vélez Sársfield	2:1 penalties
Argentinian Liga Profesional
07.05.23	Estudiantes La Plata - Vélez Sársfield	2:0
17.10.22	Vélez Sársfield - Estudiantes La Plata	4:0

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