Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 July 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lemonsoft Stadion (Vaasa) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ellefsen J. H. (Fai)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
United Kingdom	18:00	Solidsport TV


	VPS Vaasa		Žalgiris

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.6	2.1	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2.15
	2.95	3.5	2.2	Watch
	3	3.6	2.24
	3.02	3.62	2.19	Watch
	2.7	3.5	2.25
	2.92	3.82	2.23	Watch
	3.05	3.4	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.26)	3.57 ↑ (3.36)	2.2 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

VPS Vaasa
31.8%

Draw
26%

Žalgiris
42.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.6%

27.3%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

27.6%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

VPS Vaasa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that VPS Vaasa's form might have worsened.

Žalgiris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Žalgiris's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for VPS Vaasa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Žalgiris than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Žalgiris, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.5%	4.5%	90.9%

VPS Vaasa - Žalgiris Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. VPS will win (votes: 1 - 4.5%). Žalgiris will win (votes: 20 - 90.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Žalgiris: 78.9% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marttinen T. (C) 77. Alanko S. 5. Pitkanen M. 29. Pedro Justiniano 19. Haukioja M. 7. Cicale A. 21. Ahiabu P. 44. Bashkirov E. 34. Raisanen A. 30. Vahtera J. 16. Hytonen T.	96. Tordai A. (G) 45. Moutachy J. 77. Kendysh Y. 26. Zahary Y. 7. Bopesu J. 17. Matulevicius G. 22. Verbickas O. (C) 8. Karashima Y. 10. Golubickas P. 80. Antal L. 2. Fofana A.
Substitutes
26. Almen A. 22. Ehrnrooth E. (G) 4. Engstrom J. 28. Hudd R. 20. Hyvarinen J. 33. Kuek A. 25. Lindeman S. 17. Multanen K. 23. Niemi M. 2. Nuorela J. 12. Vetri L. (G) 10. Vlijter G.	15. Hodzic A. 23. Jansonas R. 12. Larsson J. 1. Markovic D. (G) 44. Matyzonok P. 18. Mazur M. 71. Mihajlovic N. 11. Petkovic N. 41. Setkus M.
Coaches
Nuorela J.	Cheburin V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Fofana A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 1 - 1, Ahiabu P. ⚽, Vahtera J. (A),
62', Pitkanen M. 🟨,
69', Vahtera J. ↓, Vlijter G. ↑,
72', Pitkanen M. 🟨,
74', Hytonen T. ↓, Niemi M. ↑,
76', Fofana A. ↓, Larsson J. ↑,
76', Antal L. ↓, Hodzic A. ↑,
87', Cicale A. ↓, Engstrom J. ↑,
90+2', Vlijter G. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 2, Kendysh Y. ⚽, Bopesu J. (A),
90+6', Niemi M. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

VPS is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Žalgiris is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Žalgiris have a series of guest games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VPS Vaasa
Finnish Veikkausliiga
06.07.24	VPS Vaasa - Ekenäs	2:3 ✺
28.06.24	Inter Turku - VPS Vaasa	3:1 ✺
Finnish Cup
25.06.24	SJK - VPS Vaasa	5:1 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
19.06.24	VPS Vaasa - Oulu	1:1 ✺
Finnish Cup
15.06.24	Inter Turku II - VPS Vaasa	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTW
- Žalgiris Vilnius
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
05.07.24	Kauno Žalgiris - Žalgiris	1:0 ✺
30.06.24	Hegelmann Litauen - Žalgiris	3:1 ✺
26.06.24	Banga Gargždai - Žalgiris	0:2 ✺
23.06.24	Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	4:0 ✺
19.06.24	Džiugas Telšiai - Žalgiris	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWWW

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