Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 3

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Raatin stadion (Oulu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	Oulu		VPS Vaasa

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.5	5	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4.95	Watch
	1.68	3.98	5.41
	1.62	4.13	5.15	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5
	1.69	3.57	5.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.94)	3.75 ↑ (3.63)	5.1 ↑ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oulu
56.6%

Draw
25%

VPS Vaasa
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

25.7%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

25.1%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oulu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oulu's performance.

VPS Vaasa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and VPS Vaasa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oulu than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oulu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that VPS Vaasa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Oulu - VPS Vaasa Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Oulu will win (votes: 3 - 50%). VPS will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Santos M. (C) 16. Kemppainen O. 5. Pitkanen M. 66. Pirinen J. 22. Kaukua T. 21. Mendolin I. 7. Karjalainen R. 6. Paananen J. 11. Ghezali L. 26. Korkko J. 27. Kallio E.	41. Jalloh M. (G) 5. Ronnberg V. 6. Okereke E. 19. Haukioja M. (C) 24. Daoussi Y. 8. Lima P. 2. Mane L. 7. Turfkruier J. 14. Lindholm S. 9. van Duivenbooden S. 11. Muzinga J.
Substitutes
20. Jatta K. 14. Jokelainen N. 40. Korhonen J. 3. Lietsa A. 30. Makelainen J. 8. Ojala M. 99. Schulz N. (G) 29. Silander S. 2. Sipola S.	35. Keturi O. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 33. Kuek A. 23. Niemi M. 13. Ogunniyi O. 34. Raisanen A. 15. Smyth L. 30. Vahtera J. 12. Vayrynen L. (G)
Coaches
Isokangas M.	Nuorela J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Paananen J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', van Duivenbooden S. 🟨,
58', Pitkanen M. ↓, Lietsa A. ↑,
66', Haukioja M. 🟥,
70', van Duivenbooden S. ↓, Niemi M. ↑,
70', Lindholm S. ↓, Raisanen A. ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Mendolin I. ⚽, Kallio E. (A),
78', Lietsa A. 🟨,
80', Daoussi Y. ↓, Smyth L. ↑,
80', Turfkruier J. ↓, Kouassivi-Benissan K. ↑,
80', Muzinga J. ↓, Ogunniyi O. ↑,
80', Ghezali L. ↓, Jatta K. ↑,
90+2', Ogunniyi O. 🟥,
90+2', Ronnberg V. 🟨,
90+3', Kallio E. ↓, Silander S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oulu won 3.

Oulu has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

VPS is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Oulu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Oulu has had a series of away games.

In this match, Oulu is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Oulu won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:33. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Oulu won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:15. (average 1.3:1.5).

Outrights of Finnish Veikkausliiga for now

VPS: 0.9% AC Oulu: 0.46%

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	AC Oulu	26	11	4	11	27:29	-2	37
6	VPS	26	10	6	10	30:31	-1	36

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Oulu
Finnish Cup
15.04.26	Oulu - FF Jaro	1:2 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
11.04.26	HJK - Oulu	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Gnistan - Oulu	1:5 ✺
Club Friendly
28.03.26	FF Jaro - Oulu	2:3 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
21.03.26	Inter Turku - Oulu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLWWL
- VPS Vaasa
Finnish Veikkausliiga
10.04.26	VPS Vaasa - FF Jaro	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Inter Turku - VPS Vaasa	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
27.03.26	VPS Vaasa - Haka	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	VPS Vaasa - Sundsvall	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	TPS - VPS Vaasa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
24.01.26	VPS Vaasa - Oulu	1:4
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.10.25	Oulu - VPS Vaasa	2:0
28.06.25	Oulu - VPS Vaasa	2:1
05.04.25	VPS Vaasa - Oulu	4:3
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
08.02.25	VPS Vaasa - Oulu	2:1
Club Friendly
17.01.25	Oulu - VPS Vaasa	3:3
Finnish Veikkausliiga
19.06.24	VPS Vaasa - Oulu	1:1

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