Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 3

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Seacon - De Koel (Venlo)

Referee: Vos M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN 3
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	VVV-Venlo		De Graafschap

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.90	2.45	Watch
	2.40	3.75	2.40
	2.50	3.40	2.40	Watch
	2.46	4.17	2.48
	2.74	3.93	2.25	Watch
	2.40	4.10	2.45
	2.41	3.91	2.51	Watch
	2.38	3.80	2.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (3.03)	3.87 ↑ (3.78)	2.42 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

VVV-Venlo
37.7%

Draw
23.9%

De Graafschap
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

24.5%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

24.5%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

VVV-Venlo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in VVV-Venlo's performance.

De Graafschap has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and De Graafschap might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for VVV-Venlo than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with VVV-Venlo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for De Graafschap than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that De Graafschap could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

VVV Venlo - De Graafschap Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Schoonderwaldt Y. (G) 21. Gorlich L. 4. Clancy E. 33. Blancquart G. 5. de Blok L. 38. Schenkhuizen T. 7. Zuliani E. 14. Vullers R. 11. Ait Mouhou N. 24. Odriss M. 9. Zandbergen D. (C)	1. Wieggers T. (G) 24. Meerstadt J. 3. Besselink R. 4. Hardeman J. (C) 21. Symons K. 18. Eijken D. 8. Warmerdam D. 7. van Zijl B. 27. Ahmeti N. 11. Mero T. 9. Kania J.
Substitutes
1. Doornbusch T. (G) 35. el Anbri Y. 43. Hendrix D. 45. Horsten J. 19. Janssen T. 15. Joosten T. 22. Taylan Z. (G) 3. Verheij L.	14. Bolk G. 31. Bouwman S. (G) 36. Braem T. 20. Finocchiaro G. 32. Grotenhuis T. 34. Hartgers N. 23. Jonkers R. (G) 17. Kaninda N. 38. Smits M.
Coaches
Dijkhuizen M.	Duivenvoorden T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Kania J. ⚽, Mero T. (A),
11', Ahmeti N. 🟨,
28', Gorlich L. 🟨,
42', 1 - 1, Ait Mouhou N. ⚽, de Blok L. (A),
45+1', Symons K. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 1, Vullers R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Eijken D. ↓, Grotenhuis T. ↑,
58', van Zijl B. ↓, Finocchiaro G. ↑,
58', Ahmeti N. ↓, Braem T. ↑,
62', Ait Mouhou N. ↓, Janssen T. ↑,
75', Odriss M. ↓, Joosten T. ↑,
75', Clancy E. ↓, Hendrix D. ↑,
78', Meerstadt J. ↓, Smits M. ↑,
85', Zuliani E. ↓, el Anbri Y. ↑,
86', Symons K. ↓, Bolk G. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Venlo won 1.

Venlo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

De Graafschap is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Venlo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

De Graafschap will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There are questionable in De Graafschap: Kwint K. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Venlo won 12 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 41:30. (average 2.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Venlo won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 24:13. (average 2.4:1.3).

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

Venlo: 7.38% De Graafschap: 0.81%

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Venlo	10	7	0	3	26:14	12	21
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13:23	-10	11

Last Results with these Odds

VVV-Venlo - the odds 3.03 are the expected chance of winning is 30.55%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

De Graafschap - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 44.91%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VVV-Venlo
Dutch Eerste Divisie
14.08.26	NAC Breda - VVV-Venlo	0:2 ✺
07.08.26	VVV-Venlo - Heracles Almelo	3:4 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	VVV-Venlo - Eupen	2:3 ✺
25.07.26	VVV-Venlo - Fortuna Köln	0:1 ✺
18.07.26	VVV-Venlo - Leuven B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLLLW
- De Graafschap
Dutch Eerste Divisie
17.08.26	De Graafschap - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:5 ✺
09.08.26	Helmond Sport - De Graafschap	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	De Graafschap - Excelsior	1:5 ✺
25.07.26	De Graafschap - AE Kifisia	4:2 ✺
17.07.26	De Graafschap - Telstar	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
11.04.26	VVV-Venlo - De Graafschap	3:3
08.08.25	De Graafschap - VVV-Venlo	3:2
28.04.25	VVV-Venlo - De Graafschap	3:1
01.12.24	De Graafschap - VVV-Venlo	3:1
26.01.24	De Graafschap - VVV-Venlo	3:0
01.09.23	VVV-Venlo - De Graafschap	2:0
12.05.23	VVV-Venlo - De Graafschap	2:1

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