Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 2 - ROUND 20

Date: 28 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Stade du Hainaut (Valenciennes)

Referee: Petit A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Amazon Prime Video


	Valenciennes		Metz

	1	X	2
	4	3.3	1.95	Watch
	3.9	3.25	1.98
	4	3.15	1.96	Watch
	3.7	3.2	1.96
	4.39	3.32	1.98
	4	3.2	1.95
	4.05	3.48	1.9	Watch
	3.8	3.3	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.98 ↑ (3)	3.28 ↑ (3.08)	1.96 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valenciennes
23.6%

Draw
28.6%

Metz
47.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

30.1%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

30.1%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valenciennes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Valenciennes's form might have worsened.

Metz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Metz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valenciennes than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Valenciennes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metz than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Metz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.3%	0%	95.7%

Valenciennes - Metz Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Valenciennes will win (votes: 1 - 4.3%). Metz will win (votes: 22 - 95.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Metz: 87.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 11 and 3).

Valenciennes has the most likely position - 13 (8.26%), has project points - 49, has currently - 25, has a chance of relegated (16%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Metz has the most likely position - 2 (22.54%), has project points - 64, has currently - 31, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of promoted (36%), has a small chance of win league (11%).

This event has quality 36, importance 45, match rating 40. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Valenciennes won 1.

Valenciennes is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Metz is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Metz will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Valenciennes won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 2-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Valenciennes won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valenciennes FC
French Ligue 2
13.01.23	Dijon - Valenciennes	2:1 ✺
10.01.23	Valenciennes - Annecy	2:2 ✺
Coupe De France
06.01.23	Paris FC - Valenciennes	3:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
30.12.22	Bastia - Valenciennes	1:0 ✺
26.12.22	Valenciennes - Amiens	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LTLLT
- FC Metz
French Ligue 2
13.01.23	Metz - Quevilly	2:0 ✺
10.01.23	Nîmes - Metz	1:4 ✺
Coupe De France
07.01.23	Lyon - Metz	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
30.12.22	Grenoble - Metz	0:1 ✺
26.12.22	Metz - Niort	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
13.08.22	Metz - Valenciennes	2:0
Coupe De France
06.03.21	Valenciennes - Metz	0:4
French Ligue 2
03.05.19	Metz - Valenciennes	3:0
17.12.18	Valenciennes - Metz	0:2
18.01.16	Valenciennes - Metz	2:1
17.08.15	Metz - Valenciennes	2:0

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