Match Info

1. Liga - Round 21

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Futbols TV


	Valmiera		Riga Mariners

	1	X	2
	1.71	4.00	3.50
	1.70	3.80	3.70
	1.74	3.88	3.59
	1.74	4.01	3.71	Watch
	1.71	3.80	3.55
	1.77	4.50	3.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.82)	4 ↓ (4.2)	3.58 ↑ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valmiera
52.2%

Draw
22.6%

Riga Mariners
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

21.9%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

20.4%

25.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valmiera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Riga Mariners has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valmiera than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Riga Mariners than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Valmiera - Riga Mariners Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Berzins A. ⚽,
12', 1 - 1, Pavlovskis A. ⚽, Karklins K. (A),
45', 2 - 1, Yamamura T. ⚽, Lopes G. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
62', 2 - 2, Pavlovskis A. ⚽, Karklins K. (A),
74', 2 - 3, Caune M. ⚽, Pavlovskis A. (A),
84', 2 - 4, Owusu R. ⚽, Caune M. (A),

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ Virsliga and 4th).

Valmiera is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Riga Mariners shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Valmiera holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Valmiera has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:7 (averaging 2:3.5 goals per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Valmiera	21	16	3	2	60:23	37	51
4	Riga Mariners	21	14	5	2	50:23	27	47

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valmiera FK
Latvian 1 Liga
12.09.26	JDFS Alberts - Valmiera	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Valmiera - Metta	2:2 ✺
30.08.26	Rēzekne - Valmiera	1:6 ✺
22.08.26	Valmiera - Mārupe	4:1 ✺
01.08.26	Valmiera - Rīgas FS 2	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WTWWW
- Riga Mariners
Latvian 1 Liga
12.09.26	Smiltene - Riga Mariners	4:1 ✺
05.09.26	Riga Mariners - Rēzekne	5:0 ✺
29.08.26	Riga Mariners - Rīgas FS 2	3:1 ✺
24.08.26	Riga 2 - Riga Mariners	1:3 ✺
31.07.26	Super Nova 2 - Riga Mariners	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
16.05.26	Riga Mariners - Valmiera	3:1
Latvian Cup
22.06.25	Riga Mariners - Valmiera	4:3 ET

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