Match Info

HNL - Round 1

Date: 2 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Gradski stadion Varazdin (Varaždin)

Referee: Kolaric P. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAX Sport 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Varaždin		Hajduk Split

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.2	2.25
	3.10	3.25	2.25
	2.98	3.2	2.3
	3.08	3.05	2.59
	3.32	3.04	2.31	Watch
	3	3	2.5
	2.93	3.41	2.4	Watch
	2.9	3.15	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↓ (4.01)	3.16 ↑ (2.83)	2.36 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varaždin
31%

Draw
29.5%

Hajduk Split
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

33%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.1%

33.3%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varaždin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Varaždin's performance.

Hajduk Split has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varaždin than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Varaždin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hajduk Split than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	33.3%	44.4%

Varaždin - Hajduk Split Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Varaždin will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Hajduk will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hajduk: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Silic J. (G) 23. Maglica F. 14. Puncec R. (C) 4. Skaricic L. 20. Sikosek G. 28. Canjuga I. 24. Marina M. 10. Latkovic A. 22. Mamic L. 38. Tavares I. 17. Mamut I.	33. Silic T. (G) 22. Acapandie M. 3. Gabric R. 5. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 32. Hrgovic S. 20. del Moral A. 4. Pajaziti A. 11. Sego M. 21. Pukstas R. 17. Melnjak D. 10. Livaja M. (C)
Substitutes
12. Bockaj P. 8. Duvnjak T. 9. Juric S. 5. Lesjak S. 13. Mladenovski M. 18. Paizinho 21. Posavec I. 30. Posinkovic L. 16. Tepsic N. 11. Uchegbu E. 7. Vuk M. 1. Zelenika O. (G)	19. Brruti E. 9. de Almeida D. 99. Fesyuk D. (G) 26. Guram A. 38. Hodak L. 15. Maresic D. 14. Raci R. 7. Sanyang A. 36. Skelin M. 23. Soticek M. 44. Stipica D. (G) 16. Sutalo A.
Coaches
Safaric N.	Garcia G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Pajaziti A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Gabric R. ↓, Maresic D. ↑,
46', del Moral A. ↓, de Almeida D. ↑,
46', Sego M. ↓, Sanyang A. ↑,
46', Melnjak D. ↓, Soticek M. ↑,
46', Puncec R. ↓, Mladenovski M. ↑,
47', Maglica F. 🟨,
53', 1 - 0, Mladenovski M. ⚽, Canjuga I. (A),
56', 1 - 1, Pukstas R. ⚽, Pajaziti A. (A),
57', Marina M. 🟨,
62', 2 - 1, Mamic L. ⚽, Latkovic A. (A),
65', Latkovic A. ↓, Posavec I. ↑,
65', Sikosek G. ↓, Tepsic N. ↑,
65', Marina M. ↓, Duvnjak T. ↑,
79', Acapandie M. 🟨,
85', Tavares I. ↓, Lesjak S. ↑,
90', Livaja M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varaždin won 1.

Varaždin is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Hajduk's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Hajduk will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Varaždin won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 16:37. (average 0.8:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Varaždin won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.9:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	9	6	1	2	18:9	9	19
4	Varazdin	8	4	3	1	13:7	6	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Varaždin
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Jablonec - Varaždin	2:0 ✺
23.07.26	Varaždin - Jablonec	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
16.07.26	Varaždin - Beltinci	2:0 ✺
16.07.26	Varaždin - Kustošija	3:1 ✺
12.07.26	Bihor Oradea - Varaždin	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWWW
- Hajduk Split
UEFA Europa League
30.07.26	Paphos - Hajduk Split	4:0 AET ✺
23.07.26	Hajduk Split - Paphos	2:0 ✺
16.07.26	Žilina - Hajduk Split	2:1 ✺
09.07.26	Hajduk Split - Žilina	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.07.26	Celje - Hajduk Split	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
03.05.26	Hajduk Split - Varaždin	3:1
28.02.26	Varaždin - Hajduk Split	1:1
29.11.25	Hajduk Split - Varaždin	1:1
13.09.25	Varaždin - Hajduk Split	2:0
18.04.25	Varaždin - Hajduk Split	1:1
08.02.25	Hajduk Split - Varaždin	1:0
03.11.24	Varaždin - Hajduk Split	1:0

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