Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Varzim SC (Póvoa de Varzim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Varzim		Académica Coimbra

	1	X	2
	2.58	3.15	2.48
	2.67	3.41	2.62
	2.59	3.45	2.54	Watch
	2.6	3	2.5
	2.52	3.2	2.48
	2.7	3.2	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (3.25)	3.24 ↑ (3.13)	2.5 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
35.1%

Draw
28.3%

Académica Coimbra
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

29.2%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

28.3%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Varzim's performance.

Académica Coimbra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Académica Coimbra might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Varzim that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Académica Coimbra than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Académica Coimbra could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Varzim - Académica Coimbra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Momo Mbaye (G) 19. Chamito 20. Derick 44. Vila Cova M. 10. Joaozinho 31. Talocha 3. Nuno P. 71. Filipe L. 77. Franca F. 7. Gomes A. 8. Oliveira R. (C)	98. Alves C. (G) 11. Farias E. 3. Teixeira R. 4. Silva G. 15. Kaka 6. Montez A. 17. Marcos Paulo 5. Silva L. (C) 93. Souza B. 18. Cuba 21. Candeias D.
Substitutes
11. Benchi D. 27. Boloto 4. Chicao 49. Costa P. (G) 14. Graca H. 35. Gunjo J. 99. Pedro Clemente 2. Pimenta G. 17. Sequeira D.	2. Baixinho M. 28. Cascavel 8. Jesus P. 49. Joao Pedro 1. Macedo N. (G) 20. Sinisterra J. 7. Tiago Andre 14. Triana C. 19. Xavier

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Montez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Montez A. ↓, Sinisterra J. ↑,
51', Sinisterra J. ↓, Xavier ↑,
66', Candeias D. ↓, Triana C. ↑,
66', Cuba ↓, Cascavel ↑,
69', 0 - 1, Farias E. ⚽,
75', Chamito ↓, Pedro Clemente ↑,
76', Gomes A. ↓, Gunjo J. ↑,
76', Alves C. 🟨,
85', Derick ↓, Graca H. ↑,
89', Souza B. ↓, Baixinho M. ↑,
89', Franca F. ↓, Benchi D. ↑,
90+6', Benchi D. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 (Promotion: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varzim won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Varzim won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Varzim won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 0.7:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
28.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	Varzim - Trofense	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Mafra - Varzim	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Varzim - Amarante	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Marco 09 - Varzim	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWLWW
- Académica Coimbra
Portuguese Liga 3
28.02.26	Académica Coimbra - União de Santarém	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	3:2 ✺
06.02.26	Académica Coimbra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Caldas - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Académica Coimbra - Amora	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
19.05.24	Académica Coimbra - Varzim	2:3
30.03.24	Varzim - Académica Coimbra	0:2
Portuguese Liga 2
22.01.22	Varzim - Académica Coimbra	1:0
14.08.21	Académica Coimbra - Varzim	1:1
01.03.21	Académica Coimbra - Varzim	1:2
Taça de Portugal
23.11.20	Académica Coimbra - Varzim	1:0
Portuguese Liga 2
04.10.20	Varzim - Académica Coimbra	0:1

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