Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 18

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Municipal de Marco de Canaveses (Marco de Canaveses)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Marco 09		Varzim

	1	X	2
	2.88	3	2.32
	3.33	3.24	2.25
	3.06	3.14	2.36	Watch
	2.9	3	2.2
	3	3.34	2.3	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↓ (3.19)	3.14 ↑ (2.92)	2.26 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco 09
30.1%

Draw
29.3%

Varzim
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

31.1%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

30.4%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco 09 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Marco 09 - Varzim Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Ze Couto (G) 10. Duarte D. 53. Matos T. 11. Mauro Ribeiro 5. Nandinho 3. Pedro M. 25. Pereira H. (C) 88. Silva D. 9. Soares P. 2. Sousa B. 95. Sousa V.	51. Momo Mbaye (G) 11. Benchi D. 19. Chamito 20. Derick 77. Franca F. 3. Nuno P. 8. Oliveira R. 99. Pedro Clemente 2. Pimenta G. (C) 31. Talocha 44. Vila Cova M.
Substitutes
1. Almeida A. 14. Doukoure H. 79. Erivaldo 23. Garro L. 27. Guimaraes B. 18. Martins D. 7. Pedro P. 21. Pedrosa C. 33. Silva J.	27. Boloto 49. Costa P. (G) 71. Filipe L. 14. Graca H. 45. Rebelo M. 32. Rego R. 17. Sequeira D. 7. Teixeira G. 70. Ze Manuel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', 1 - 0, Sousa V. ⚽,
12', 1 - 1, Franca F. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 2, Nuno P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Matos T. ↓, Doukoure H. ↑,
63', Pedro Clemente ↓, Rebelo M. ↑,
64', Benchi D. ↓, Sequeira D. ↑,
72', Sousa V. ↓, Garro L. ↑,
77', Franca F. ↓, Boloto ↑,
80', Soares P. 🟨,
87', Chamito ↓, Ze Manuel ↑,
90+6', 1 - 3, Rebelo M. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: )).

Marco is Liga 3 (Relegation Group )

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Varzim may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Marco won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Marco 09
Portuguese Liga 3
18.01.26	Trofense - Marco 09	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:3 ✺
04.01.26	Braga B - Marco 09	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Marco 09 - São João de Ver	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Amarante - Marco 09	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLLWL
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
17.01.26	Varzim - Sanjoanense	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Fafe - Varzim	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Varzim - Trofense	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Paredes - Varzim	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
01.11.25	Varzim - Marco 09	2:1
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Varzim - Marco 09	2:2

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