The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Vasco da Gama 68.8%
Draw 19.7%
Coritiba 11.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
51.8%
26.9%
21.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
52.6%
26.5%
21%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vasco da Gama's performance.
Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Coritiba might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-16.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vasco da Gama that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+9.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Coritiba could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
80%
20%
0%
Vasco da Gama - Coritiba Predictions
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 4. Saldivia A. 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 22. Lescano A. 5. Sosa S. 188. Thiago Mendes (C) 11. Gomez A. 19. Bruno Duarte 9. Colidio F.
1. Pedro Morisco (G) 50. Tissi 23. Tiago Coser 4. Rodrigo Moledo (C) 26. Bruno Melo 21. Thiago Santos 19. Gomez S. 28. Fabinho 10. Josue 7. Lavega J. 32. Pedro Rocha
Substitutes
28. Adson 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 55. Gabriel Pereira 18. Hinestroza M. 8. Jair 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 83. Ramon Rique 2. Rodriguez J. 10. Rojas J. 77. Spinelli C.
33. Alves D. 14. Bustos F. 5. Fonseca N. 27. Gabriel Ibson 37. Lucas Crepaldi 3. Maicon 18. Paulo Roberto 22. Pedro Rangel (G) 78. Renato Marques 66. Rodrigo Gelado 99. Rodrigo Rodrigues 36. Vini Paulista
Coaches
Emanuel P.
Fernando Seabra
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Colidio F. ⚽,
44', 2 - 0, Bruno Duarte ⚽, Gomez A. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Fabinho ↓, Paulo Roberto ↑,
46', Tissi ↓, Bustos F. ↑,
46', Tiago Coser ↓, Fonseca N. ↑,
56', 3 - 0, Lescano A. (Penalty Awarded),
61', Paulo Roberto 🟨,
63', 4 - 0, Gomez A. ⚽, Saldivia A. (A),
64', Gomez A. 🟨,
65', Pedro Rocha ↓, Rodrigo Gelado ↑,
71', Gomez A. ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
71', Lescano A. ↓, Ramon Rique ↑,
74', 5 - 0, Ramon Rique ⚽,
75', Fonseca N. 🟨,
77', Sosa S. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
78', Lavega J. ↓, Vini Paulista ↑,
78', Thiago Mendes ↓, Jair ↑,
78', Colidio F. ↓, David ↑,
Preview
A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 17th in the Relegation ~ Serie B and 8th in the Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2.
Vasco is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Coritiba has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Vasco may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Vasco has faced a series of away games on the road.
In this match, Vasco enters as the overwhelming favorite.
In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Vasco has recorded 6 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:13 (averaging 1.2:0.9 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Vasco against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 10:6 goals (averaging 1.4:0.9 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
11
Coritiba
30
10
9
11
38:48
-10
39
14
Vasco
29
9
8
12
36:42
-6
35
Last Results with these Odds
Coritiba - the odds 4.4 are the expected chance of winning is 21.26%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.
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Leo Jardim (G) 
Saldivia A. 
Lescano A. 
Gomez A. 
Josue 
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