Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DSports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Israel	Sport 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2, ESPN
Peru	ESPN 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Vasco da Gama		Independiente Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.75	8.50	Watch
	1.38	4.60	8.00
	1.37	4.50	8.50	Watch
	1.39	4.68	9.35
	1.38	4.71	8.79	Watch
	1.36	4.60	9.25
	1.39	4.75	8.10	Watch
	1.37	4.60	8.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.52)	4.65 ↑ (3.8)	8.59 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
68.6%

Draw
20.3%

Independiente Santa Fe
11%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

23.3%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

22%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vasco da Gama's performance.

Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente Santa Fe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vasco da Gama that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente Santa Fe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Vasco da Gama - Independiente Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 2. Rodriguez J. (C) 4. Saldivia A. 30. Robert Renan 6. Lucas Piton 5. Sosa S. 83. Ramon Rique 28. Adson 3. Tche Tche 18. Hinestroza M. 19. Bruno Duarte	1. Mosquera A. (G) 13. Palacios H. 18. Olivera E. 3. Moreno V. 32. Mafla C. 7. Torres J. 16. Torres D. 77. Obrian J. 9. Fagundez F. 25. Rodriguez E. 11. Rodallega H. (C)
Substitutes
66. Cuiabano 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 11. Gomez A. 8. Jair 43. Lucas Freitas 17. Moreira N. 96. Paulo Henrique 10. Rojas J. 77. Spinelli C. 23. Thiago Mendes	24. Angulo J. 12. Asprilla W. (G) 19. Bustos N. 31. Espitia J. (G) 17. Lovera M. 21. Murillo E. 14. Palacios L. 39. Portocarrero C. 4. Puerta M. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 6. Toscano Bassa K. D. 10. Zapata A.
Coaches
Emanuel P.	Repetto P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Olivera E. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Bruno Duarte ⚽, Saldivia A. (A),
40', Rodriguez E. ↓, Lovera M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Torres D. ↓, Toscano Bassa K. D. ↑,
62', Obrian J. ↓, Bustos N. ↑,
62', Bruno Duarte ↓, David ↑,
63', Adson ↓, Moreira N. ↑,
63', Ramon Rique ↓, Thiago Mendes ↑,
63', Hinestroza M. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
65', 2 - 0, David ⚽, Rodriguez J. (A),
83', Torres J. ↓, Zapata A. ↑,
83', Sosa S. ↓, Lucas Freitas ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 0-0.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Santa Fe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Vasco has had a series of away games.

Recently, Santa Fe has had a series of home games.

In this match, Vasco is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vasco won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Outrights of Copa Sudamericana for now

Vasco: 20.19%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.09.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.09.26	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
02.09.26	Vitória Salvador - Vasco da Gama	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.08.26	Vasco da Gama - Cruzeiro	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WTLWW
- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
11.09.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.09.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
05.09.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Fortaleza CEIF	2:2 ✺
02.09.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Millonarios	3:2 ✺
29.08.26	Junior Barranquilla - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
08.09.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Vasco da Gama	0:0

Upcoming Matches