Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 12

Date: 12 June 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globo Internacional TV, Globoplay, Premiere, Rede Globo, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Usa	Fanatiz


	São Paulo		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	5.5	Watch
	1.78	3.25	5.25
	1.78	3.2	5.15	Watch
	1.92	3.39	4.3
	1.86	3.33	4.43	Watch
	1.91	3.2	4.33
	1.8	3.36	5.26	Watch
	1.78	3.2	5.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.97)	3.27 ↓ (3.28)	4.92 ↑ (4.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

São Paulo
51.9%

Draw
28.9%

Vasco da Gama
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

29%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

29.1%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	5.3%	10.5%

São Paulo - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - São Paulo (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.23% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): São Paulo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 6. Soares C. 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 13. Diaz E. 29. Pablo Maia 25. Alisson 48. Lucas Ferreira 10. Luciano 17. Andre Silva 45. Lucca Marques	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 25. Hugo Moura 3. Tche Tche 11. Coutinho 77. Rayan 99. Vegetti P. 17. Moreira N.
Substitutes
21. Bobadilla D. 19. Dinenno J. 43. Felipe Negrucci 32. Ferraresi N. 37. Henrique Carmo 93. Jandrei (G) 42. Maik 47. Matheus Alves 36. Patryck 49. Ryan Francisco 35. Sabino 18. Wendell	28. Adson 90. Alex Teixeira 45. Augusto L. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 15. Garre B. 19. GB 8. Jair 4. Lemos M. 44. Luiz Gustavo 85. Mateus Carvalho 2. Rodriguez J. 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Fernando Diniz

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
26', 0 - 1, Rayan ⚽, Paulo Henrique (A),
33', Luciano 🟨,
38', Robert Arboleda 🟨,
40', 0 - 2, Moreira N. ⚽,
45', Andre Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Pablo Maia ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
46', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
46', Lucca Marques ↓, Dinenno J. ↑,
59', Joao Victor 🟨,
69', 0 - 3, Vegetti P. ⚽, Paulo Henrique (A),
71', Hugo Moura 🟨,
75', Paulo Henrique ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
81', Soares C. ↓, Sabino ↑,
81', Andre Silva ↓, Ryan Francisco ↑,
87', Dinenno J. 🟨,
88', Coutinho ↓, Adson ↑,
88', Vegetti P. ↓, Alex Teixeira ↑,
88', Tche Tche ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
90+1', Moreira N. ↓, Augusto L. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 3, Ryan Francisco ⚽, Alisson (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Vasco has had a series of home games.

In this match, São Paulo is considered a favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Ferreira (Foot Injury) Igor Vinicius (Back Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Marcos Antonio (Hamstring Injury) Oscar (Thigh Injury) Rodriguinho (Yellow Cards) Ruan Tressoldi (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Vasco: David (Knee Injury) Guilherme Estrella (Knee Injury) Payet D. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:20. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 24:7. (average 2.4:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Vasco da Gama - the odds 4.17 are the expected chance of winning is 22.82%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
31.05.25	Bahia - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.05.25	São Paulo - Talleres de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.25	São Paulo - Mirassol	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
20.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLWW
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
31.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Red Bull Bragantino	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.25	Vasco da Gama - FBC Melgar	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.25	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
20.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
16.10.24	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	3:0
22.06.24	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	4:1
07.10.23	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	0:0
20.05.23	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	4:2
Copa do Brasil
04.08.21	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	1:2
28.07.21	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
22.11.20	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	1:1

Upcoming Matches