Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 27

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba)

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Usa	Fanatiz, SportsEngine Play


	Coritiba		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.5	Watch
	3.00	3.20	2.37
	2.95	3	2.42	Watch
	3.22	3.07	2.57
	3.05	3.21	2.46	Watch
	3.15	3	2.5
	3.25	3.05	2.46	Watch
	3	3.05	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.72)	3.07 ↑ (3.06)	2.47 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
30.8%

Draw
30.8%

Athletico Paranaense
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

30.4%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

32.4%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	87.5%	0%

Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Coritiba will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 64.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Morisco (G) 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 23. Tiago Coser 55. Jacy (C) 26. Bruno Melo 21. Thiago Santos 19. Gomez S. 7. Lavega J. 10. Josue 77. Breno Lopes 32. Pedro Rocha	1. Mycael (G) 33. Aguirre F. 25. Dantas 4. Arthur Dias 29. Benavidez G. 16. Jadson 14. Luiz Gustavo (C) 37. Esquivel L. 8. Joao Cruz 7. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K.
Substitutes
28. Fabinho 39. Gustavo 3. Maicon 18. Paulo Roberto 22. Pedro Rangel (G) 78. Renato Marques 25. Richard 66. Rodrigo Gelado 4. Rodrigo Moledo 99. Rodrigo Rodrigues 50. Tissi 36. Vini Paulista	18. Calderon Vargas K. A. 47. Chiqueti 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 12. Gilberto 3. Leo 21. Leozinho 27. Portilla J. 70. Renan Peixoto 23. Santos (G) 22. Teran C. 10. Zapelli B.
Coaches
Fernando Seabra	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Luiz Gustavo ⚽, Esquivel L. (A),
28', Lavega J. 🟨,
30', 0 - 2, Arthur Dias ⚽, Joao Cruz (A),
34', Jacy 🟨,
34', Viveros K. 🟨,
43', Joao Cruz 🟨,
45+1', Breno Lopes 🟥,
45+2', 1 - 2, Tiago Coser ⚽,
45+5', Dantas 🟨,
45+9', Joao Pedro Chermont 🟨,
45+12', Pedro Rocha 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Benavidez G. ↓, Gilberto ↑,
46', Joao Cruz ↓, Teran C. ↑,
46', Bruno Melo ↓, Richard ↑,
46', Pedro Rocha ↓, Rodrigo Rodrigues ↑,
46', Lavega J. ↓, Paulo Roberto ↑,
46', Joao Pedro Chermont ↓, Rodrigo Moledo ↑,
46', Dantas ↓, Felipinho ↑,
63', 1 - 3, Viveros K. (Penalty Awarded),
67', Viveros K. ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,
74', Thiago Santos ↓, Rodrigo Gelado ↑,
90+1', 2 - 3, Rodrigo Moledo ⚽, Josue (A),
90+3', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
90+4', Mendoza S. ↓, Portilla J. ↑,
90+7', 3 - 3, Rodrigo Moledo ⚽, Josue (A),

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 2.

Coritiba is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Athletico PR has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Athletico PR will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Coritiba: Lucas Ronier (Knee Injury) Ocampo B. (Injury) Tinga (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Claudinho (Muscle Injury) Leo Derik (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Coritiba: Jacy (Injury)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Arthur Dias (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:17. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Coritiba won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 0.9:0.5).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Athletico-PR: 0.15% Coritiba: 0.04%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
10	Coritiba	30	10	9	11	38:48	-10	39

Last Results with these Odds

Coritiba - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 34.17%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Athletico Paranaense - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 35.48%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Coritiba - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
31.08.26	Remo - Coritiba	2:3 ✺
23.08.26	Coritiba - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	São Paulo - Coritiba	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Coritiba - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 LWWTW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Cruzeiro - Athletico Paranaense	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	Athletico Paranaense - Fluminense	3:3 ✺
24.08.26	Botafogo RJ - Athletico Paranaense	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Athletico Paranaense - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
09.08.26	Santos - Athletico Paranaense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
22.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
17.01.26	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
19.10.25	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	0:0
28.06.25	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
25.01.25	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	0:0
18.02.24	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
01.10.23	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	2:0

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