Match Info

FNL - Round 11

Date: 14 September 2026, Monday

Location: Avangard Stadium (Domodedovo)

Referee: Kharitonov V. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Veles Moscow		Sochi

	1	X	2
	3.59	3.43	2.1
	3.55	3.35	2.07
	3.79	3.3	1.99	Watch
	3.35	3.05	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.57 ↑ (2.98)	3.28 ↑ (2.98)	2.05 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Veles Moscow
26.1%

Draw
28.4%

Sochi
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Veles Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Sochi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sochi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Veles Moscow than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sochi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Veles Moscow - Sochi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
76. Kuptsov I. (G) 40. Bezchasnyuk A. 80. Rybalko M. 3. Volkov V. 23. Skvortsov K. 22. Zavezen Y. (C) 97. Shubin A. 90. Galkin V. 10. Bammatgereev M. 11. Korolkov K. 8. Tarasenko Z.	51. Mitrov T. (G) 3. Soldatenkov A. 44. Stojic N. 4. Litvinov V. 27. Zaika K. (C) 5. Osipov A. 6. Kuzmin M. 13. Kalinin I. 8. Ignatov M. 7. Sheydayev R. 28. Magal R.
Substitutes
99. Abdokov N. 9. Giraev K. 94. Kuchugura D. 6. Melikov I. 87. Nikin I. 88. Sadov D. 41. Samok S. (G) 21. Sapozhnikov I. 18. Sergeev D. 70. Zakharzhevskiy M.	59. Bart R. 9. Fedorov Z. 39. Lantrat M. (G) 17. Makarchuk A. 11. Meleshin P. 66. Metsiev A. 60. Nosatiy M. 97. Pasevich R. 85. Silev D. (G)
Coaches
Stukalov A.	Osinkin I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Tarasenko Z. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', Galkin V. ↓, Kuchugura D. ↑,
59', Kalinin I. ↓, Metsiev A. ↑,
59', Kuzmin M. ↓, Makarchuk A. ↑,
61', Korolkov K. 🟨,
65', Rybalko M. 🟨,
68', Zaika K. ↓, Fedorov Z. ↑,
68', Sheydayev R. ↓, Pasevich R. ↑,
68', Tarasenko Z. ↓, Giraev K. ↑,
68', Bammatgereev M. ↓, Zakharzhevskiy M. ↑,
68', Korolkov K. ↓, Abdokov N. ↑,
75', Shubin A. ↓, Melikov I. ↑,
75', Abdokov N. 🟨,
75', Soldatenkov A. 🟨,
78', 1 - 1, Osipov A. ⚽,
85', Ignatov M. ↓, Meleshin P. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Fedorov Z. ⚽,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Promotion: )).

Veles is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Sochi has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sochi might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Veles Moscow: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sochi	12	7	2	3	21:14	7	23
5	Veles Moscow	13	7	2	4	17:16	1	23

Last Results with these Odds

Veles Moscow - the odds 2.98 are the expected chance of winning is 30.55%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Veles Moscow
Russian Cup
09.09.26	Murom - Veles Moscow	1:0 ✺
Russian FNL
05.09.26	Ufa - Veles Moscow	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Tekstilshchik Ivanovo - Veles Moscow	0:1 ✺
24.08.26	Veles Moscow - Arsenal Tula	2:0 ✺
19.08.26	Veles Moscow - Nizhny Novgorod	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 LTWWW
- FC Sochi
Russian Cup
09.09.26	Dinamo Saint Petersburg - Sochi	2:0 ✺
Russian FNL
05.09.26	Sochi - Nizhny Novgorod	0:1 ✺
30.08.26	Sochi - Chelyabinsk	2:1 ✺
24.08.26	KAMAZ - Sochi	2:3 ✺
20.08.26	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Sochi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWWW

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