Match Info

FNL - Round 9

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Fisht Olympic Stadium (Sochi)

Referee: Gusakov O. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Sochi		Chelyabinsk

	1	X	2
	1.58	4.07	5.8
	1.55	3.95	5.65
	1.58	4.06	5.98	Watch
	1.5	3.8	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.49)	3.97 ↓ (4.17)	5.66 ↓ (6.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sochi
60%

Draw
23.5%

Chelyabinsk
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.8%

22.4%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

21.3%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sochi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Chelyabinsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sochi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelyabinsk than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Sochi - Chelyabinsk Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sochi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Degtev A. (G) 44. Stojic N. 33. Marcelo Alves 3. Soldatenkov A. 22. Kozhemyakin O. 5. Osipov A. 28. Magal R. 17. Makarchuk A. (C) 8. Ignatov M. 11. Meleshin P. 7. Sheydayev R.	93. Tuseev I. (G) 44. Rusyaev I. 15. Kochiev K. (C) 19. Baytukov R. 21. Berdnikov A. 70. Levin G. 18. Kertanov K. 10. Gadzhimuradov R. 77. Samoilov D. 74. Kacorri L. 7. Safronov I.
Substitutes
59. Bart R. 29. Ezhov R. 9. Fedorov Z. 13. Kalinin I. 18. Kaynov M. 6. Kuzmin M. 39. Lantrat M. (G) 66. Metsiev A. 60. Nosatiy M. 97. Pasevich R. 85. Silev D. (G) 27. Zaika K.	72. Bem A. 55. Borisov G. 99. Kamenshchikov D. 1. Lomaev I. (G) 17. N'Diaye B. 31. Pereverzev M. (G) 33. Pokotylo D. 24. Pridava N. 23. Rogochiy B. 29. Urvantsev M. 9. Zyryanov N.
Coaches
Osinkin I.	Pilipchuk R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Makarchuk A. 🟨,
35', Kertanov K. 🟨,
38', Gadzhimuradov R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Meleshin P. ↓, Fedorov Z. ↑,
46', Kacorri L. ↓, Urvantsev M. ↑,
61', Kochiev K. ↓, Kamenshchikov D. ↑,
66', Sheydayev R. ↓, Kuzmin M. ↑,
66', Kozhemyakin O. ↓, Zaika K. ↑,
73', Samoilov D. 🟨,
73', Safronov I. ↓, N'Diaye B. ↑,
75', 0 - 1, Gadzhimuradov R. (Penalty Awarded),
77', Gadzhimuradov R. ↓, Rogochiy B. ↑,
82', Osipov A. 🟨,
87', N'Diaye B. 🟨,
89', Ignatov M. ↓, Pasevich R. ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Fedorov Z. (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', Levin G. 🟨,
90+2', Stojic N. ↓, Kaynov M. ↑,
90+8', 2 - 1, Fedorov Z. ⚽,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Promotion: ) and 13).

Sochi is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Chelyabinsk is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Chelyabinsk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sochi has had a series of away games.

In this match, Sochi is the team to beat.

We predict that Sochi will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Chelyabinsk: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sochi	12	7	2	3	21:14	7	23
15	Chelyabinsk	12	3	3	6	13:19	-6	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Sochi
Russian FNL
24.08.26	KAMAZ - Sochi	2:3 ✺
20.08.26	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Sochi	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Sochi - Volga Ulyanovsk	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Torpedo Moscow - Sochi	1:2 ✺
01.08.26	Leningradets - Sochi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWWL
- FC Chelyabinsk
Russian FNL
23.08.26	Leningradets - Chelyabinsk	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Chelyabinsk - Torpedo Moscow	0:4 ✺
09.08.26	Rotor - Chelyabinsk	4:1 ✺
02.08.26	Volga Ulyanovsk - Chelyabinsk	0:2 ✺
25.07.26	Chelyabinsk - Nizhny Novgorod	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLLWL

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