The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
North Texas 40.6%
Draw 24.9%
Tacoma Defiance 34.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
39.2%
25.1%
35.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.8%
25.5%
35.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
North Texas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)
Tacoma Defiance has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Texas than the current prediction. (-0.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
North Texas - Tacoma Defiance Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Dymora E. (G) 29. Newman E. 26. Starnes S. (C) 14. Goncalves L. 53. Vejrostek L. 11. James N. 27. Swann C. 18. Ospina T. 36. Baran D. 15. Louis R. 10. Nys E.
41. Shour M. (G) 47. Alvarez D. 53. Sandnes G. 58. Winslow J. 84. Gaffney C. 63. Cisneros-Tafolla B. 34. Robles D. (C) 80. Brown D. 32. Gnaulati X. 42. Jauregui R. 99. Lucero L.
Substitutes
31. Burchfield T. (G) 21. Flowers B. 25. Gibson J. 46. Kaakoush I. 30. Kimbrough D. 19. Luccin M. 32. Martins L. 17. Molomo Z. 23. Sedeh S.
78. Dale J. 43. Hassan O. 65. Hurtado Martinez P. 97. Kitafuji S. 87. Lear J. 82. Miller B. 67. Sugitani T.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Goncalves L. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
50', 0 - 1, Gnaulati X. ⚽, Gaffney C. (A),
57', Robles D. 🟨,
65', Sandnes G. ↓, Sugitani T. ↑,
65', Gaffney C. ↓, Hassan O. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Starnes S. ⚽, Swann C. (A),
71', Shour M. 🟨,
72', 2 - 1, Baran D. ⚽,
73', Gnaulati X. ↓, Kitafuji S. ↑,
83', Baran D. ↓, Kimbrough D. ↑,
83', Lucero L. ↓, Lear J. ↑,
84', Robles D. ↓, Hurtado Martinez P. ↑,
90', James N. ↓, Gibson J. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 1, Kimbrough D. ⚽,
90+4', Swann C. ↓, Luccin M. ↑,
90+5', Brown D. 🟨,
Preview
This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Texas won 3.
North Texas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Tacoma is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Tacoma may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, North Texas won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 2:1.9).
Including home matches between the teams, North Texas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 2.3:1.8).
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Dymora E. (G) 
Goncalves L. 
James N. 
Baran D. 
Louis R. 
Nys E. 
Kimbrough D. 
Luccin M. 
Kitafuji S. 
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