Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa Verde - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 February 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga (Goiânia)


	Vila Nova		Luverdense

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.1	3.9
	1.83	3.15	4.2
	1.69	3.29	4.75
	1.75	3.36	4.54	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.33
	1.71	3.38	4.58
	1.85	3.2	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.37)	3.23 ↓ (4.17)	4.34 ↓ (7.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Nova
50.9%

Draw
28.2%

Luverdense
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.2%

21.8%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.1%

20.6%

11.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vila Nova's form might have worsened.

Luverdense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luverdense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+19.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vila Nova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luverdense than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luverdense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vila Nova - Luverdense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, Igor Inocencio ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, Bruninho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Penalties (9 - 8)
1, Vinicius Paiva (Pen),
1, Raul Prata (Pen),
2, Igor Inocencio (Pen),
2, Adriano Klein (Pen),
3, Higor (Pen),
3, Leozinho (Pen),
4, Tiago Pagnussat (Pen),
4, Gaspar (Pen),
5, Ralf (Pen),
5, (Pen),
6, (Pen),
6, (Pen),
7, (Pen),
7, (Pen),
8, (Pen),
8, (Pen),
9, (Pen),
9, (Pen),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vila Nova won 3.

Vila Nova is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Luverdense is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Vila Nova is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Vila Nova to win the game is with odds 1.66.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Vila Nova won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:4 (average 1.2:0.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Vila Nova won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:1 (average 1.4:0.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Campeonato Goiano
02.02.25	Vila Nova - Goiás	1:0 ✺
29.01.25	Vila Nova - Clube Recreativo e Atlético Catalano	0:0 ✺
26.01.25	Atlético Goianiense - Vila Nova	1:3 ✺
23.01.25	Vila Nova - Goianésia	1:0 ✺
19.01.25	Anápolis - Vila Nova	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WTWWT
- Luverdense EC
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
01.02.25	Mixto - Luverdense	4:1 ✺
29.01.25	Cuiabá - Luverdense	3:1 ✺
26.01.25	Luverdense - União Rondonópolis	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
22.01.25	Operário MS - Luverdense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
18.01.25	Luverdense - Nova Mutum	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Verde
23.02.23	Vila Nova - Luverdense	1:0 penalties
Brazilian Serie B
16.09.17	Vila Nova - Luverdense	2:1
06.06.17	Luverdense - Vila Nova	1:1
16.09.16	Vila Nova - Luverdense	0:0
07.06.16	Luverdense - Vila Nova	0:2
Brazilian Copa Verde
17.03.16	Luverdense - Vila Nova	0:1
10.03.16	Vila Nova - Luverdense	4:0

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