Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 32

Date: 14 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Almeida N. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Vilafranquense		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.25
	2.05	3.1	3.2
	2	3.3	3.4
	2.2	3.4	3.51
	2.1	3	3.3
	2.1	3.32	3.36
	2.14	3.15	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (1.86)	3.2 ↓ (3.43)	3.31 ↓ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilafranquense
43.6%

Draw
28.7%

Covilhã
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

27.3%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

26.5%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilafranquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vilafranquense's form might have worsened.

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Covilhã's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilafranquense than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vilafranquense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Covilhã, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

Vilafranquense - Covilhã Predictions

Users Predictions: Vilafranquense will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 6 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 0.

Vilafranquense is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Covilhã is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Vilafranquense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Vilafranquense will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 1 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Vilafranquense won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Vilafranquense
Portuguese Liga 2
06.05.23	Mafra - Vilafranquense	2:1 ✺
29.04.23	Vilafranquense - Torreense	2:0 ✺
23.04.23	Tondela - Vilafranquense	1:0 ✺
17.04.23	Vilafranquense - Estrela da Amadora	0:1 ✺
08.04.23	Académico de Viseu - Vilafranquense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLL
- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 2
06.05.23	Covilhã - Oliveirense	2:1 ✺
30.04.23	BSAD - Covilhã	0:1 ✺
24.04.23	Covilhã - Mafra	1:2 ✺
15.04.23	Leixões - Covilhã	3:2 ✺
08.04.23	Torreense - Covilhã	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
08.01.23	Covilhã - Vilafranquense	0:0
30.01.22	Covilhã - Vilafranquense	1:1
23.08.21	Vilafranquense - Covilhã	1:1
08.03.21	Vilafranquense - Covilhã	2:2
18.10.20	Covilhã - Vilafranquense	2:2
09.02.20	Vilafranquense - Covilhã	1:0
24.08.19	Covilhã - Vilafranquense	1:0

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