Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 28

Date: 17 April 2023, Monday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Vilafranquense		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.25	2.1	Watch
	3	3.1	2.15
	3.05	3.1	2.23
	3.46	3.3	2.26
	3.1	3	2.2
	3.28	3.13	2.22
	3.1	3.2	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (2.6)	3.15 ↓ (3.25)	2.19 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilafranquense
28.9%

Draw
29.1%

Estrela da Amadora
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

28.8%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

29.3%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilafranquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vilafranquense's form might have worsened.

Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estrela da Amadora's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilafranquense than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vilafranquense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Estrela da Amadora, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	40%	46.7%

Vilafranquense - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Vilafranquense will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Estrela will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estrela: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The great teams are gonna meet at this game. The most expected match between two teams from the very top of the group (ranked 5 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Relegation: )).

Recent matches Vilafranquense is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Estrela is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Vilafranquense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Vilafranquense
Portuguese Liga 2
08.04.23	Académico de Viseu - Vilafranquense	2:0 ✺
02.04.23	Vilafranquense - Nacional	4:0 ✺
19.03.23	Penafiel - Vilafranquense	1:1 ✺
11.03.23	Vilafranquense - Farense	1:1 ✺
04.03.23	Benfica B - Vilafranquense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWTTW
- Estrela da Amadora
Portuguese Liga 2
07.04.23	Estrela da Amadora - Mafra	2:2 ✺
02.04.23	Covilhã - Estrela da Amadora	0:2 ✺
18.03.23	Estrela da Amadora - Torreense	1:0 ✺
12.03.23	Leixões - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
05.03.23	Académico de Viseu - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
31.10.22	Estrela da Amadora - Vilafranquense	1:1
03.04.22	Estrela da Amadora - Vilafranquense	0:1
05.11.21	Vilafranquense - Estrela da Amadora	2:2

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