Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 14

Date: 23 December 2022, Friday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Vilafranquense		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.45
	2.65	2.9	2.55
	2.7	2.8	2.7
	2.8	3	2.55
	2.94	3.05	2.74
	2.7	2.8	2.62
	2.84	2.86	2.59
	2.75	2.95	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.12)	2.93 ↓ (3.13)	2.59 ↓ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilafranquense
33.2%

Draw
31.3%

Mafra
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

29%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

29%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilafranquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vilafranquense's form might have worsened.

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mafra's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilafranquense than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vilafranquense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mafra, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31%	24.1%	44.8%

Vilafranquense - Mafra Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Vilafranquense will win (votes: 9 - 31%). Mafra will win (votes: 13 - 44.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 24.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mafra: 26.7% – 62.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 5 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Vilafranquense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Vilafranquense won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Vilafranquense
Portuguese League Cup
11.12.22	Vilafranquense - BSAD	0:0 ✺
27.11.22	Boavista - Vilafranquense	1:0 ✺
19.11.22	Vilafranquense - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
11.11.22	Torreense - Vilafranquense	0:1 ✺
05.11.22	Vilafranquense - Tondela	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLTWT
- CD Mafra
Portuguese League Cup
16.12.22	Chaves - Mafra	1:2 ✺
05.12.22	Mafra - Vizela	1:1 ✺
25.11.22	Porto - Mafra	2:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
14.11.22	Mafra - Leixões	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
08.11.22	Mafra - Porto	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.3 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
27.07.22	Mafra - Vilafranquense	1:0
Portuguese Liga 2
06.02.22	Vilafranquense - Mafra	2:0
Taça de Portugal
21.11.21	Vilafranquense - Mafra	0:1
Portuguese Liga 2
30.08.21	Mafra - Vilafranquense	1:0
04.04.21	Vilafranquense - Mafra	2:1
30.11.20	Mafra - Vilafranquense	0:1
12.01.20	Mafra - Vilafranquense	1:1

Vilafranquense - Mafra: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide