Match Info

Date: 8 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Vilafranquense		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3
	2.2	3.1	2.95
	2.35	3.05	2.88
	2.29	3.15	3
	2.39	3.12	3.39
	2.35	2.9	3
	2.24	3.16	3.08
	2.3	3.15	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.34)	3.09 ↓ (3.1)	3.04 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilafranquense
40.1%

Draw
29.7%

Penafiel
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

29.5%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

28.2%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilafranquense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilafranquense than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Vilafranquense - Penafiel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 1.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Vilafranquense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Vilafranquense won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Vilafranquense
Portuguese Liga 2
18.09.22	Farense - Vilafranquense	2:1 ✺
10.09.22	Vilafranquense - Benfica B	3:2 ✺
03.09.22	Porto B - Vilafranquense	0:1 ✺
26.08.22	Vilafranquense - Feirense	1:0 ✺
20.08.22	Trofense - Vilafranquense	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.6 LWWWW
- FC Penafiel
Taça de Portugal
02.10.22	Gondomar - Penafiel	2:3 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
17.09.22	Penafiel - Moreirense	1:1 ✺
09.09.22	Oliveirense - Penafiel	1:1 ✺
04.09.22	Penafiel - Trofense	3:0 ✺
27.08.22	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
15.01.22	Penafiel - Vilafranquense	4:3
09.08.21	Vilafranquense - Penafiel	0:1
18.03.21	Vilafranquense - Penafiel	0:0
23.09.20	Penafiel - Vilafranquense	1:2
19.01.20	Vilafranquense - Penafiel	1:1
Taça de Portugal
24.09.17	Vilafranquense - Penafiel	1:0

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