Match Info

PORTUGAL: LEAGUE CUP - ROUND 1

Date: 17 November 2022, Thursday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Penafiel		Moreirense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3	3.1	2.4
	3.2	2.9	2.4
	2.95	3	2.32
	3.26	3.02	2.46
	3	2.88	2.38
	3.1	2.99	2.42	Watch
	3	3.1	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (3.04)	3 ↓ (3.05)	2.39 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
30.2%

Draw
31%

Moreirense
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

29.9%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

29.2%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	40%	43.3%

Penafiel - Moreirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 5 - 16.7%). Moreirense will win (votes: 13 - 43.3%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 25.6% – 61%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Moreirense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Penafiel won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
12.11.22	Benfica B - Penafiel	1:2 ✺
05.11.22	Penafiel - Farense	0:2 ✺
29.10.22	Nacional - Penafiel	1:1 ✺
23.10.22	Penafiel - Feirense	0:1 ✺
19.10.22	Porto B - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLTLT
- Moreirense FC
Portuguese Liga 2
14.11.22	Tondela - Moreirense	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
10.11.22	Braga - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
05.11.22	Moreirense - Porto B	3:2 ✺
29.10.22	Benfica B - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
23.10.22	Moreirense - Farense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
17.09.22	Penafiel - Moreirense	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
25.07.21	Penafiel - Moreirense	2:1 penalties
Club Friendly
14.07.18	Penafiel - Moreirense	2:1
15.07.17	Penafiel - Moreirense	0:1
23.07.16	Penafiel - Moreirense	0:1
18.07.15	Penafiel - Moreirense	2:0
Liga Portugal
01.03.15	Penafiel - Moreirense	1:2

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