Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 12

Date: 1 December 2023, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Vilaverdense		Leiria

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.6	1.91
	3.5	3.4	1.88	Watch
	3.6	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.87	3.77	1.98
	3.87	3.77	1.96
	3.4	3.5	1.83
	3.68	3.6	1.89	Watch
	3.5	3.5	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↓ (3.86)	3.59 ↓ (3.75)	1.91 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilaverdense
25.5%

Draw
25.9%

Leiria
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

25%

50.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.6%

24.4%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilaverdense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Leiria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilaverdense than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	10%	90%

Vilaverdense - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: Leiria will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Santos R. (G) 94. Viegas R. 33. Gustavo 26. Batista J. 12. Maviram E. 70. Hanne B. 88. Neves L. 8. Joao Caiado 20. Semedo Y. (C) 7. Teixeira G. 21. Harramiz S.	1. Kieszek P. (G) 4. Bura 6. Baixinho M. 15. Kaka 24. Zie Ouattara 21. Silva L. 25. Amado D. (C) 14. Empis P. 8. Arsenio 11. Silva J. 17. Lucho Vega
Substitutes
11. Bruno Silva 23. Ericson 17. Fati N. 27. Freitas C. 1. Goncalves I. (G) 6. Konate B. 19. Lopes A. 5. Sako M. 10. Soares A.	7. Antunes L. 16. Cuca 3. Lystsov V. 47. Oliveira J. (G) 72. Oliveira V. 20. Resende J. 30. Ribeiro S. 22. Valdir 19. Valente A.
Coaches
Machado S.	Costa V.

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 10).

Vilaverdense is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Leiria is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Leiria will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilaverdense FC
Taça de Portugal
25.11.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Vilaverdense	4:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
18.11.23	Mafra - Vilaverdense	1:0 ✺
12.11.23	Vilaverdense - Tondela	1:2 ✺
04.11.23	Belenenses - Vilaverdense	0:2 ✺
30.10.23	Vilaverdense - Porto B	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLWL
- UD Leiria
Taça de Portugal
26.11.23	Leiria - Atlético da Malveira	5:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
18.11.23	Leiria - Leixões	0:0 ✺
11.11.23	Nacional - Leiria	2:0 ✺
05.11.23	Leiria - Marítimo	4:3 ✺
29.10.23	Oliveirense - Leiria	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTLWW

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