Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Carlos Osorio (Oliveira de Azemeis)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan
Portugal	Sport TV1


	Oliveirense		Leiria

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.2	2
	3.25	3.25	2.12
	3.16	3.31	2.31
	3.39	3.37	2.12	Watch
	3.25	3	2.1
	3.48	3.33	2.08	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (3.02)	3.24 ↑ (3.14)	2.14 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oliveirense
28.3%

Draw
28.5%

Leiria
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

29.3%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

27.8%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oliveirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Oliveirense - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Oliveirense will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Leiria will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ribeiro R. (C) 13. Santos V. 4. Bura 75. Namora N. 19. Lopes A. 99. Sabino 90. Brito T. 8. Ondoa F. 21. Silva J. 7. Joao Adriano 10. Bruno Silva	98. Joao Bravim (G) 68. Maga 44. Marcelo 16. Ze Pedro 15. Silva J. 20. Gomes B. 21. Pires M. 19. Fernandez P. 9. Munoz J. (C) 10. van der Gaag J. 86. Michel D.
Substitutes
26. Bastos L. 16. Diallo A. 40. Greis N. (G) 11. Joanderson 17. Lucas Henrique 9. Martelo P. 57. Nagata K. 80. Onohara K. 14. Pereira D.	11. Jair da Silva 8. Kouassi E. 17. Lucho Vega 88. Martins D. 99. Odehnal J. (G) 6. Rodriguez G. 52. Sylla H. 78. Victor Silva 39. Zikovic R.
Coaches
Alexandre C.	Pereira F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Michel D. ⚽, Silva J. (A),
45+2', Pires M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
54', Santos V. ↓, Martelo P. ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Bura ⚽, Silva J. (A),
60', 1 - 2, Maga ⚽, van der Gaag J. (A),
66', Michel D. ↓, Jair da Silva ↑,
66', Gomes B. ↓, Martins D. ↑,
69', Martins D. 🟨,
77', Joao Adriano ↓, Joanderson ↑,
77', Bruno Silva ↓, Nagata K. ↑,
79', 2 - 2, Martelo P. ⚽, Brito T. (A),
80', van der Gaag J. ↓, Sylla H. ↑,
80', Pires M. ↓, Kouassi E. ↑,
87', 2 - 3, Munoz J. (Penalty Awarded),
89', Brito T. ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
89', Lopes A. ↓, Bastos L. ↑,
89', Silva J. ↓, Lucho Vega ↑,
90+2', 2 - 4, Munoz J. ⚽, Fernandez P. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oliveirense won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Leiria could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Oliveirense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:12. (average 0.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Oliveirense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Leiria	6	3	1	2	10:7	3	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese Liga 2
14.02.26	Académico de Viseu - Oliveirense	4:1 ✺
07.02.26	Oliveirense - Vizela	3:0 ✺
01.02.26	Sporting Lisbon B - Oliveirense	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Oliveirense - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Farense - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 LWLWT
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
15.02.26	Leiria - Porto B	2:2 ✺
08.02.26	Torreense - Leiria	3:1 ✺
26.01.26	Leiria - Sporting Lisbon B	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	Leiria - Vizela	2:2 ✺
16.01.26	Académico de Viseu - Leiria	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
11.10.25	Leiria - Oliveirense	0:0
02.05.25	Leiria - Oliveirense	5:0
22.12.24	Oliveirense - Leiria	1:2
08.03.24	Leiria - Oliveirense	1:0
29.10.23	Oliveirense - Leiria	1:4
Portuguese Liga 3
25.04.22	Leiria - Oliveirense	0:2
03.04.22	Oliveirense - Leiria	0:0

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