Match Info

Date: 24 May 2022, Tuesday

Location: Obdulio Varela (Montevideo)


	Villa Española		Cerro

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.1	3.75
	2.05	3.05	3.55
	1.93	3.1	3.7
	1.93	3.03	4.07
	1.88	3.1	4
	1.84	3.25	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (3.4)	3.11 ↑ (2.9)	3.89 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villa Española
47.3%

Draw
29.3%

Cerro
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

30.9%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.6%

33.2%

45.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villa Española has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Villa Española's performance.

Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cerro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villa Española than the current prediction. (-22.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Villa Española that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+22.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cerro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	14.8%	7.4%

Villa Española - Cerro Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Villa Española will win (votes: 21 - 77.8%). Cerro will win (votes: 2 - 7.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Villa Española: 62.1% – 93.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Apertura)).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Villa Española won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Villa Española won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CSD Villa Española
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.05.22	Atenas de San Carlos - Villa Española	2:3 ✺
15.05.22	Villa Española - La Luz	1:1 ✺
07.05.22	Progreso - Villa Española	2:0 ✺
30.04.22	Villa Española - Rampla Juniors	3:2 ✺
16.04.22	Atenas de San Carlos - Villa Española	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTLWL
- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.05.22	Cerro - Miramar Misiones	2:1 ✺
13.05.22	Central Español - Cerro	1:2 ✺
06.05.22	Cerro - Sud América	3:2 ✺
30.04.22	Uruguay Montevideo - Cerro	3:1 ✺
17.04.22	Cerro - La Luz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.03.22	Cerro - Villa Española	0:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.10.16	Villa Española - Cerro	2:0

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