Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo)

Referee: Sacarelo B. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Cerro		Miramar Misiones

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.25	2.63	Watch
	2.55	3.1	2.6
	2.62	3.05	2.62
	2.78	3.19	2.74
	1.55	3.62	6.78	Watch
	2.66	3.14	2.67	Watch
	2.63	3.25	2.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.54)	3.23 ↓ (3.25)	3.24 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro
39.4%

Draw
30.4%

Miramar Misiones
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

28.8%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

27.4%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Miramar Misiones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miramar Misiones than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Miramar Misiones could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Cerro - Miramar Misiones Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Cerro (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerro (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Bacchia R. (G) 28. Fuica N. 5. Villar M. 7. Macelli A. (C) 6. Frugone A. 14. Sosa E. 30. Neira I. 32. Caceres S. 10. Ocampo M. 29. Paiva S. 31. Morales B.	30. Moreno J. (G) 19. Olivera A. (C) 29. Ayala J. 15. Alonso F. 16. Gomez M. 23. Nunez D. 22. Diaz O. 8. Pandiani A. 24. Silvera F. 10. Ramirez G. 11. Sosa A.
Substitutes
22. Acosta F. 26. Alvarez J. 27. Camacho S. 1. Cubero M. (G) 15. Cuello E. 34. Da Rosa C. 23. Farias M. 3. Iraola F. 8. Miranda A. 19. Techera F.	26. Crisafi J. F. 9. Da Silva S. 28. Gelos N. 4. Lopez P. 27. Lopez S. 14. Pereira G. 31. Pirez M. (G) 37. Roldan M. 17. Saliadarre E. 18. Tirado F.
Coaches
Silva T.	Giordano B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Morales B. ⚽,
30', Villar M. 🟨,
30', Diaz O. 🟨,
45+3', Caceres S. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sosa A. ↓, Da Silva S. ↑,
46', Ocampo M. ↓, Cuello E. ↑,
46', Nunez D. ↓, Roldan M. ↑,
54', Morales B. 🟨,
57', Morales B. ↓, Camacho S. ↑,
61', Pandiani A. ↓, Crisafi J. F. ↑,
61', Diaz O. ↓, Lopez S. ↑,
66', Gomez M. ↓, Tirado F. ↑,
71', Bacchia R. 🟨,
72', Paiva S. ↓, Miranda A. ↑,
78', Ayala J. 🟨,
85', Ramirez G. 🟨,
85', Neira I. ↓, Farias M. ↑,
89', Cuello E. 🟨,
89', Roldan M. 🟨,
90+4', Lopez S. 🟨,
90+10', 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
14.09.25	Danubio - Cerro	5:1 ✺
07.09.25	Cerro - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Cerro	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Cerro - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1 ✺
17.08.25	Plaza Colonia - Cerro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LLLWW
- Miramar Misiones
Uruguayan Primera Division
14.09.25	Miramar Misiones - Montevideo Wanderers	3:0 ✺
07.09.25	Progreso - Miramar Misiones	3:2 ✺
31.08.25	Danubio - Miramar Misiones	2:3 ✺
23.08.25	Miramar Misiones - Cerro Largo	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Miramar Misiones	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
27.03.25	Miramar Misiones - Cerro	1:1
05.10.24	Cerro - Miramar Misiones	0:1
14.06.24	Miramar Misiones - Cerro	1:0
31.03.24	Miramar Misiones - Cerro	2:2
Uruguayan Segunda Division
08.10.22	Cerro - Miramar Misiones	1:3
01.10.22	Miramar Misiones - Cerro	0:2
14.08.22	Miramar Misiones - Cerro	4:1

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