Match Info

URUGUAY: PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA - ROUND 9

Date: 2 April 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Luis Troccoli (Montevideo)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)


	Cerro		La Luz

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3	Watch
	2.2	3.3	3
	2.24	3.42	3.39
	2.3	2.9	3.1
	2.22	3.18	3.22	Watch
	2.26	3.2	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.09)	3.19 ↑ (3.15)	3.16 ↓ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro
41.6%

Draw
29.1%

La Luz
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

29.2%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

28.3%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

La Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Cerro - La Luz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 12 and 16).

Cerro is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches La Luz is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

La Luz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Cerro will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Cerro won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Cerro won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.03.23	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	3:0 ✺
20.03.23	Cerro - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:0 ✺
12.03.23	Danubio - Cerro	1:0 ✺
04.03.23	Cerro - Nacional Montevideo	2:2 ✺
25.02.23	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLTL
- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.03.23	La Luz - Racing Montevideo	1:3 ✺
17.03.23	Plaza Colonia - La Luz	1:1 ✺
10.03.23	La Luz - Cerro Largo	0:3 ✺
05.03.23	Liverpool Montevideo - La Luz	2:3 ✺
27.02.23	La Luz - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
17.09.22	La Luz - Cerro	0:1
17.08.22	Cerro - La Luz	3:0
17.04.22	Cerro - La Luz	1:2

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