The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Lugo 27.5%
Draw 32.4%
Leganés 40.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.9%
30.1%
34%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.3%
29%
32.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugo's form might have worsened.
Leganés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leganés's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+9.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (-7.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leganés, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
33.3%
41.7%
25%
Lugo - Leganés Predictions
Users Predictions:
24 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 8 - 33.3%). Leganés will win (votes: 6 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 41.7%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 22% – 61.4%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (12.77%), has project points - 46, has currently - 1, has a chance of relegated (40%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (6%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Leganés has the most likely position - 16 (5.66%), has project points - 56, has currently - 0, has a chance of relegated (17%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (16%), has a small chance of promoted (9%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).
This event has small quality30, importance35, match rating32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 1.
Recent matches Lugo is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Leganés is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Leganés will have a poor advantage in this game.
Last 8 head-to-head matches Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-9.
Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.
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