Match Info

YBC Levain Cup - First stage - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 June 2025, Wednesday

Location: Lemon Gas Stadium (Hiratsuka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	Fuji TV Two


	Shonan Bellmare		Júbilo Iwata

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.4	5.25	Watch
	2.1	3	3.1
	1.77	3.45	4.7	Watch
	1.75	3.68	4.93
	1.75	3.44	4.9	Watch
	2.1	3	3.4
	1.75	3.46	5.33	Watch
	1.77	3.45	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.09)	3.36 ↑ (3.11)	4.54 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shonan Bellmare
51.2%

Draw
28%

Júbilo Iwata
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

30.3%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

32%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shonan Bellmare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shonan Bellmare's performance.

Júbilo Iwata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

Shonan Bellmare - Júbilo Iwata Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Shonan Bellmare will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Iwata will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Iwata: 29.2% – 76.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Shonan Bellmare (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Iwata (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Iwata (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Shonan Bellmare (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Iwata (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Kamifukumoto N. (G) 33. Takahashi N. 8. Ono K. 32. Matsumura S. 14. Barada A. 50. Fujii T. 15. Okuno K. 25. Okuno H. 20. Ishibashi S. 16. Nemoto R. 27. Luiz Phellype	13. Abe K. (G) 38. Kawaguchi N. 22. Ueebisu K. 3. Morioka R. 67. Yoshimura R. 25. Nakamura S. 6. Kaneko D. 33. Kawai T. 26. Nishikubo S. 11. Matheus Peixoto 2. Kawasaki I.
Substitutes
19. Fukuda S. 3. Hata T. 13. Hiraoka T. 18. Ikeda M. 22. Oiwa K. 31. Sanada K. (G) 10. Suzuki A. 37. Suzuki Y. 4. Tachi K.	23. Croux J. 1. Kawashima E. (G) 71. Masui K. 4. Matsubara K. 36. Ricardo Graca 20. Sato R. 39. Sumi K. 8. Tameda H. 7. Uehara R.
Coaches
Yamaguchi S.	Hutchinson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Nemoto R. (Pen),
32', 2 - 0, Okuno H. ⚽, Okuno K. (A),
33', Nakamura S. ↓, Uehara R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nishikubo S. ↓, Sumi K. ↑,
46', Yoshimura R. ↓, Tameda H. ↑,
46', Takahashi N. ↓, Oiwa K. ↑,
50', Ueebisu K. 🟥,
54', Matheus Peixoto ↓, Ricardo Graca ↑,
63', Luiz Phellype ↓, Suzuki A. ↑,
70', Nemoto R. ↓, Fukuda S. ↑,
70', Okuno K. ↓, Ikeda M. ↑,
80', Kawasaki I. ↓, Masui K. ↑,
80', Fujii T. ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 2.

In recent matches, Shonan Bellmare has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Iwata is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Shonan Bellmare may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Shonan Bellmare is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:21. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Shonan Bellmare won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shonan Bellmare
Japan J1 League
01.06.25	Shonan Bellmare - Fagiano Okayama	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	Albirex Niigata - Shonan Bellmare	2:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
21.05.25	Shonan Bellmare - Tokyo	1:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
17.05.25	Shonan Bellmare - Yokohama FC	0:1 ✺
11.05.25	Tokyo Verdy - Shonan Bellmare	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TLWLW
- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J2 League
31.05.25	Omiya Ardija - Júbilo Iwata	2:2 ✺
25.05.25	Tokushima Vortis - Júbilo Iwata	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
21.05.25	Júbilo Iwata - Gamba Osaka	2:1 ET ✺
Japan J2 League
17.05.25	Júbilo Iwata - Iwaki	2:0 ✺
11.05.25	Júbilo Iwata - Fujieda MYFC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
14.07.24	Shonan Bellmare - Júbilo Iwata	5:0
25.05.24	Júbilo Iwata - Shonan Bellmare	3:2
30.07.22	Júbilo Iwata - Shonan Bellmare	1:0
Japan Emperors Cup
22.06.22	Shonan Bellmare - Júbilo Iwata	0:1
Japan J League Cup
18.05.22	Shonan Bellmare - Júbilo Iwata	1:0
Japan J1 League
10.04.22	Shonan Bellmare - Júbilo Iwata	0:0
Japan J League Cup
02.03.22	Júbilo Iwata - Shonan Bellmare	0:1

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