Match Info

Serie D - Round 1

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Salvador Venâncio da Costa (Vitoria)


	Vitória ES		Tombense

	1	X	2
	2.17	3.08	3.33	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.25
	2.16	2.99	3.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.43)	2.96 ↓ (3.2)	3.29 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória ES
41.9%

Draw
30.6%

Tombense
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

28.4%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

27.4%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória ES has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Tombense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tombense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória ES than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tombense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vitória ES - Tombense Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Vitória ES is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tombense has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Vitória ES may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitória ES
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
14.03.26	Vitória ES - Porto Vitória	1:6 penalties ✺
08.03.26	Porto Vitória - Vitória ES	0:4 ✺
01.03.26	Vitória ES - Forte Rio Bananal	4:1 ✺
23.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Serra - Vitória ES	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWTW
- Tombense FC
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
28.03.26	Operário Ferroviario - Tombense	1:0 ✺
25.03.26	Tombense - Avaí	3:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.03.26	Confiança - Tombense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
28.02.26	URT - Tombense	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Tombense - Oratório	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLLW

Vitória ES - Tombense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide