Match Info

Vysshaya Liga - Round 10

Date: 26 May 2025, Monday

Location: Borisov Arena (Barysaw)

Referee: Shiyan N. (Blr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5


	BATE Borisov		Smorgon

	1	X	2
	1.3	4.75	7.75
	1.39	4.59	8.08
	1.4	4	6.5
	1.42	4.45	8.1	Watch
	1.35	4.4	8.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.45)	4.44 ↑ (4.3)	7.85 ↑ (7.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BATE Borisov
67.4%

Draw
20.8%

Smorgon
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.6%

22.1%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

17.2%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BATE Borisov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Smorgon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BATE Borisov than the current prediction. (-16.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with BATE Borisov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Smorgon than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

BATE Borisov - Smorgon Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - BATE (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: BATE Borisov will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. BATE (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Skopets A. (G) 68. Zhulpa D. 23. Rashchenya I. 5. Osipov E. 19. Lyakh V. 8. Costrov I. 7. Svirepa A. 33. Sotnikov V. (C) 77. Kargbo I. 29. Charles Y. 27. Piletskiy R.	1. Koltygin A. (G) 5. Firsov A. 3. Intsoen C. (C) 4. Diallo M. 77. Bogdanovich I. 27. Tishko A. 2. Bamba M. 23. Stankevich A. 8. Maslovskiy V. 63. Rakhimov A. 9. Chebotar V.
Substitutes
28. Chernook K. 17. Dongo D. 10. Guibero R. 21. Kiselev V. 25. Neskoromnyi N. 11. Prudnikov N. 24. Rusenchik V. 16. Sokol D. (G) 98. Svidinskiy M. 14. Telesh M.	19. Azarko M. (G) 26. Bini K. 13. Dayneko A. 6. Doumbia S. 10. Sodikov S.
Coaches
Migal I.	Dorokhovich S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Rakhimov A. ⚽, Stankevich A. (A),
20', 1 - 1, Svirepa A. ⚽, Zhulpa D. (A),
32', 2 - 1, Piletskiy R. ⚽, Osipov E. (A),
32', Piletskiy R. 🟨,
38', Osipov E. 🟨,
42', Bogdanovich I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
66', Costrov I. ↓, Telesh M. ↑,
66', Piletskiy R. ↓, Guibero R. ↑,
70', Diallo M. ↓, Sodikov S. ↑,
70', Telesh M. 🟨,
77', Chebotar V. ↓, Dayneko A. ↑,
79', Osipov E. ↓, Svidinskiy M. ↑,
79', Kargbo I. ↓, Prudnikov N. ↑,
80', Rakhimov A. ↓, Doumbia S. ↑,
83', 🟨,
87', Zhulpa D. ↓, Rusenchik V. ↑,
90', 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 2, Tishko A. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Pershaya Liga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, BATE won 4.

Recent performances by BATE have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Smorgon is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, BATE is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, BATE won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:6. (average 2.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, BATE won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:4. (average 3.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BATE Borisov
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
18.05.25	ML Vitebsk - BATE Borisov	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	BATE Borisov - Dinamo Brest	2:4 ✺
02.05.25	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - BATE Borisov	0:1 ✺
25.04.25	BATE Borisov - Slutsk	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Dinamo Minsk - BATE Borisov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWWL
- FC Smorgon
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
16.05.25	Smorgon - Slavia Mozyr	0:2 ✺
11.05.25	Neman Grodno - Smorgon	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Smorgon - Torpedo-BelAZ	0:1 ✺
26.04.25	Naftan - Smorgon	3:1 ✺
21.04.25	ML Vitebsk - Smorgon	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
28.11.24	BATE Borisov - Smorgon	7:4
06.07.24	Smorgon - BATE Borisov	0:0
17.09.23	Smorgon - BATE Borisov	1:2
29.04.23	BATE Borisov - Smorgon	2:0
12.09.21	Smorgon - BATE Borisov	1:3
01.05.21	BATE Borisov - Smorgon	1:0

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